A World Series is already out of reach for these 5 teams in the MLB standings

The MLB regular season is a marathon, not a sprint. The rule of thumb usually goes that it's not worth even looking at the standings until Memorial Day, and even now, there's plenty of time — months, even — for a turnaround.

That said, at a certain point, patience runs dry. And for fans of some of this year's biggest underperformers to date, it's getting late early — especially with some big decisions looming at this year's trade deadline. When is the hole too deep to climb out of?

Let's use MLB history as our guide. When looking at the worst starts by playoff teams since the advent of the Wild Card in 1995, it becomes clear that for certain teams, the fat lady has already sung.

The worst starts by a playoff team in MLB history

Worst starts by division winners in MLB history

The worst start through 81 games by a division winner in the Wild Card era is 38-43, which the Dodgers managed to pull off in both 2008 and 2013. There are some caveats there, though, namely an NL West division that was notoriously weak in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Beyond that, you need to be at least sniffing .500 to have a shot.

Worst starts by Wild Card teams in MLB history

Of course, the advent of the third Wild Card spot has made it even easier for slow starters to hold onto hope. But even still, there's something of a floor here: Only the 2024 Detroit Tigers — one of the more remarkable comeback stories in recent sports history — won fewer than 39 of their first 81 games and still managed to make the postseason.

Every other second-half surge, from the Rocktober Rockies to the Moneyball A's, was more mediocre than outright bad before turning things around. And that's bad news for the following five teams, all of which still harbor hopes of meeting preseason expectation — but which don't have history on their side.

Which teams have already lost their chance at a World Series?

Baltimore Orioles

Despite an offseason overhaul, Baltimore enters play on Monday at 37-42, mired in fourth place in the AL East. If they want to find hope, there are plenty of places to look: Just two years ago, the Detroit Tigers started out at 37-44 before getting red-hot over the summer and getting all the way to Game 5 of the ALDS. Heck, four different teams have had fewer than 40 wins in the first half of their season only to on to claim division titles.

Then again, unless the Orioles can have a great week, their record after 81 games will almost certainly be as bad or worse than any other team that's rallied to make the playoffs in MLB history. Maybe they're an outlier, but given how up-and-down their pitching situation has been to date — not to mention homegrown stars like Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday — a comeback doesn't exactly seem in the cards.

Boston Red Sox

At 31-44, the Red Sox are just about cooked — historically speaking, at least. Not that you need to tell anyone in New England as much: They've been abandoning ship on this team for weeks now, if not months.

Unless Boston starts a new winning streak, they'll almost certainly have more losses after 81 games than any playoff team the league has ever seen. As if owning one of the worst offenses in baseball or the Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony injuries weren't evidence enough, this is looking like a rebuilding year at Fenway.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit is no doubt hoping that they can pull this season out of the fire yet and avoid having to trade Tarik Skubal ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline. After all, the 2024 Tigers seemed similarly stuck in the mud at this point in the season, only to pull off a midsummer miracle.

Then again, these Tigers would have to win each of their next six games just to match the 37-44 mark from two years ago. The AL playoff picture is as forgiving as it's been in some time, but it's still true that Detroit would have to buck a mountain of recent history in order to fashion a postseason run out of the current mess.

Houston Astros

Speaking of teams that would really rather not sell at the trade deadline: The Houston Astros are, according to recent reports, refusing to even consider moving pieces like Yordan Alvarez (understandable) or shortstop Jeremy Peña (less so). But history says they should think long and hard about shifting that stance, because at 37-42, Houston is dangerously close to crossing a point from no team has been able to return.

Only 10 teams in MLB history have made the playoffs after losing at least 42 of their first 81 games, and the Astros still have two games to go to add to that number. Houston has been a bit better after a nightmarish April, but that's a low bar to clear, and they're going to have to completely overhaul their pitching staff to try and turn this season around.

New York Mets

Just when it seems like the Mets are showing signs of life, the boulder falls all the way back down the hill again. New York enters play on Monday at 34-43, and they'll almost certainly be worse after 81 games than any other playoff team in baseball history. The Atlanta Braves have already made the NL East a moot point, but even a Wild Card spot will require catching teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. None of those teams will be selling at the deadline, and all of them seem sturdier than the Mets are right now.

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