Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The San Diego Padres are considering selling at this year's trade deadline despite still being technically alive in the Wild Card race.
- Three contending teams stand out as ideal destinations for star closer Mason Miller, each with a farm system deep enough to make a serious offer.
- The debate centers on which package balances immediate impact, future control, and prospect upside most effectively for both sides.
The San Diego Padres just traded for Mason Miller at last year's trade deadline, so it's certainly unlikely that they turn around and move him come this year's August 3rd deadline, but as some rival executives told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, it makes a lot of sense to listen to offers for the star closer.
Even after back-to-back wins, the Padres are just 46-46 on the year. They're 14.0 games back of first place in the NL West, and are 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot. They're still technically alive in the Wild Card race, but considering their deficit, the fact that they'd have to jump four teams to squeak into that third spot, and simply how they've played this season, their odds of making the playoffs feel very slim. Selling might very well be their best path forward, and with so many older players on untradeable contracts, Miller is one of the few stars this team has that can bring them a high-level return to help jumpstart a farm system in need of a boost.
If (and it's a big if) A.J. Preller turns around and decides to trade Miller at this year's deadline, teams like the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers could make sense as landing spots. Here's what those teams might look to offer.
A Cubs trade package for Mason Miller
A lot has been made of the Chicago Cubs' need for starting pitching, and while their rotation is an obvious concern, the bullpen is in need of replenishing as well. Their closer, Daniel Palencia, has missed substantial time due to injury this season, and he won't be back until sometime after the All-Star break at the earliest. Phil Maton has struggled and is currently on the IL. Hunter Harvey is on the IL without a clear timetable to return. Shelby Miller is already out for the year. Guys like Jacob Webb, Ryan Rolison and Trent Thornton have stepped up, but the Cubs are in clear need of a reliable late-game reliever. There's nobody better than Miller, as the Cubs learned just last postseason.
He wouldn't come cheap. Matt Shaw is a former top prospect who has shown flashes of upside when given a chance to play regularly both at third base and even in right field. Josiah Hartshorn is a prospect who's skyrocketed up rankings this season. He got off to a strong start in Single-A and has been even better in High-A. Jaxon Wiggins' stock isn't quite as high as it was entering the year, as he's missed time due to injury and has command concerns, but he's made four appearances since being activated off the IL, and he's pitched pretty well.
The Padres wouldn't be getting a Leo De Vries type of prospect, but Shaw can play right now pretty much anywhere on the diamond, Wiggins is pretty close to MLB-ready, and Hartshorn, the best piece of the deal, is a prospect worth getting very excited about, especially for a franchise that lacks slug right now.
It's a lot to give up from a Cubs perspective, but Shaw doesn't have an everyday role locked in, Wiggins has real reliever risk, and Hartshorn, as promising as he looks, isn't even in Double-A yet. Three additional years of Mason Miller make parting with this package worthwhile.
The White Sox can become AL Central favorites by acquiring Mason Miller
The Chicago White Sox are hanging on to first place in the AL Central by a thread and will probably need to add to their roster if they want to fend off the Guardians, especially once Jose Ramirez returns from the IL. They shouldn't make an all-in move for a rental like Tarik Skubal, but a pitcher with control like Mason Miller should be at the top of their list if he becomes available, especially given Seranthony Dominguez's struggles in leverage moments. There just isn't anyone trustworthy other than Grant Taylor right now.
This is a package White Sox fans will almost certainly ruthlessly bash me for, and understandably so. Caleb Bonemer, while not quite Leo De Vries, is one of the best prospects in baseball with superstar upside. His home run against Gerrit Cole this season generated the most headlines, but that's just one of his 21 home runs thus far. He has tons of power while possessing the ability to hit for average, solid base-stealing ability, and a good glove on the left side of the infield. Even if he can't stick at shortstop, there's every reason to believe he'd be a high-end defensive third baseman. He's not the kind of prospect you'd ordinarily want to trade away, but 3.5 years of Mason Miller don't come around often.
Tanner McDougal is the other big piece in this deal, as one of the White Sox's best pitching prospects. McDougal is expected to only be a reliever this season, but he's on the cusp of being MLB-ready and has the stuff to be an impactful mid-rotation arm. Sebastian Romero is more of a lottery ticket, but he is a 17-year-old who ranks within Chicago's top 20 prospects according to MLB Pipeline. He'd be a strong addition to the Padres' system.
It's obviously a lot to give up from Chicago's perspective, but not only is their infield already stacked, but they're about to select No. 1 overall in the upcoming MLB Draft, and can add Roch Cholowsky or Grady Emerson to their farm system, so it's not as if Bonemer, as good as he is, is irreplaceable. From a Padres' perspective, even if this package isn't quite as well-rounded as the Cubs' Bonemer has more upside than anyone the Cubs would realistically offer.
A Mason Miller trade is the kind of all-in move the Brewers should be considering
The Milwaukee Brewers are in the unique position of being one of the best teams in the NL with one of the best farm systems in the league. They can be ultra-aggressive if they choose to, and while I question whether they'd go all-in on a rental like Skubal, someone with additional control like Miller is right in their wheelhouse in terms of targets. Adding Miller to a bullpen that already includes the likes of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby would make them incredibly tough to beat, and they can do so without giving up their best prospects.
It's a lot to part with. Jett Williams was the centerpiece of this offseason's Freddy Peralta trade. Logan Henderson has done nothing but excel when he's gotten opportunities at the MLB level. Andrew Fischer has 28 home runs and a 1.164 OPS already this season. All three of these players can, and probably should be considered top-100 prospects. There's a good chance all three of these players will be in the majors sometime in the second half, too, if they were to get traded to the Padres.
If the Brewers are able to get 3.5 years of Mason Miller while holding onto guys like Jesus Made, Luis Pena and Luis Lara, I don't see how they can turn it down. It's one thing to not trade this kind of package for a rental, but Miller can close games for several years to come for a team that hopes to hoist a Commissioner's Trophy. From a Padres' perspective, while there isn't a Bonemer type of prospect or Shaw-level of big-leaguer right now, they'd be receiving the best prospect haul of the three proposed deals.
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