The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off in a winner-take-all Game 3 of the Wild Card series, with a trip to Los Angeles to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS on the line. Given how small the margin for error is in a winner-take-all game, the pressure will be on managers Walt Weiss and Don Mattingly to press all the right buttons. One slip-up could dictate the ultimate victor in what should be a very competitive contest.
Well, what if I told you both managers have already made at least one mistake? That's right — there's a good chance that both the Braves and the Phillies made lineup decisions that Weiss and Mattingly will want back in hindsight.
Braves' choice to start Dominic Smith was the biggest head-scratcher of all
Why not start with the most bizarre choice of all? If we were in April, starting Dom Smith would not only be justifiable, but preferred. Smith was one of Atlanta's best hitters in the first month of the year, ending it by hitting .338 with four home runs and a .925 OPS. He'd tail off from there, though, resulting in a drastic loss of playing time. In fact, Smith started only three games in the entire month of September, one of which came in a meaningless game in their final series of the year.
Not only has Smith rarely seen the field, but he finished his regular season with hits in three of his final 28 at-bats. That's a .107 batting average. He's been given two rather major pinch-hitting opportunities in this series, and he's gone 0-for-2 with two strikeouts. Overall, Smith has three hits in his last 30 at-bats with 13 strikeouts. Is that good?
Yes, he has the ability to hit a home run and change any given game, and yes, he has good numbers against both Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, pitchers who figure to play huge roles in this game, but nothing about how Smith has played of late suggests he should be starting a winner-take-all game. I'm not even sure he should be on the roster to begin with.
Phillies predictably ignored Garrett Stubbs' success with Aaron Nola
The most disappointing decision on Philadelphia's side was its choice to stick with J.T. Realmuto behind the plate over Garrett Stubbs. Obviously, Realmuto is the better player of the two, but a dive into the numbers show why Stubbs might've made more sense.
Catcher | 2026 ERA with Aaron Nola | Career ERA with Aaron Nola |
|---|---|---|
J.T. Realmuto | 5.14 | 4.02 |
Garrett Stubbs | 2.82 | 3.52 |
J.T. Realmuto caught a vast majority of Nola's starts to begin the year, and Nola looked like one of the worst pitchers in the sport. Nola then finished his season by putting together an 11-start stretch in which he posted a 2.45 ERA, with most of those games started by Stubbs. Realmuto caught him in the final weekend of the season and it did not go well (although Nola was only on two days' rest).
The point is, numbers never lie, and not only has Nola been far better with Stubbs as his catcher in 2026, but this has been a theme over the course of his career. I totally get that the Phillies want to start the better player, but why roster three catchers then? Doing so gave the Phillies a golden opportunity to start Stubbs with Nola, and then bring Realmuto in once Nola departs, with Rafael Marchan still there as a safety net for Realmuto. If Nola implodes, perhaps working with a catcher with whom he has less chemistry could be a factor.
Braves made the wrong choice for their opener
Starting an opener is never ideal, but given the state of the Braves' rotation, it made all the sense in the world for Walt Weiss to do so. Weiss was even right to begin the game with a left-handed pitcher, knowing that Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott are all left-handed hitters slotted into the top five of Philadelphia's order. Using a lefty to get through that lane and then go to a pitcher like Grant Holmes makes a lot of sense. Was Ray Kerr really the right choice, though?
Kerr isn't bad by any means. In fact, he had a 1.47 ERA in nine appearances and 18.1 innings this season for the Braves, and left-handed hitters went 4-for-23 against him with no extra-base hits. He even pitched well against the Phillies, in particular, allowing two hits in 6.1 scoreless innings against them. With that being said, those nine appearances from Kerr are the only nine outings he has had in the big leagues since 2024, thanks largely to elbow problems. Given his inexperience, do the Braves really want to use him in this big a spot?
Why not roll with someone like Dylan Dodd instead? Dodd had a 2.54 ERA in 48 appearances this season for Atlanta, and left-handed hitters hit just .171 against him in 86 plate appearances. He's been a key member of the bullpen for the Braves all year, which makes him easier to trust in such a huge spot. The last thing the Braves can afford to do is give up an early lead, and it's harder to trust Kerr to keep things close than Dodd.
Phillies kept Bryce Harper in the outfield by playing an injured Edmundo Sosa
The Phillies' season was nearly ended in Game 2 by Bryce Harper, whose brutal misplay of a fly ball to right field led to two Braves runs. Harper made up for his blunder by hitting a home run, but the error should've served as a bit of a warning sign that perhaps he shouldn't be in right field. So, of course, Don Mattingly put him right back out there.
Harper was once an elite right fielder, but not only is he 33 years of age, but he's barely played the position in recent years. He was moved to the outfield after the Phillies acquired Luis Arraez at the deadline, but prior to that, he hadn't been out there regularly since 2021 - that's five years ago. Well, Arraez is out with an ankle injury, and for some reason, Harper is still in right field.
What's especially weird about this is that the Phillies made this decision so they could start Edmundo Sosa, who departed Game 2 with what looked like a serious leg injury, at third base, shifting Alec Bohm to first, where Harper should be. Can Sosa really give the Phillies much of anything at less than 100 percent? Was it worth jeopardizing their defense just to try him out? Sosa has been a spark plug before, so perhaps he can come up with a big hit in this game, but there's a real chance that the defensive downgrade will come back to haunt the Phillies in their biggest game of the year.
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