Less than two years ago, Jake Bauers entered spring training on a minor league contract after hitting .199 with a .662 OPS. (In fairness, would you have offered him a big-league deal?) Now, the Milwaukee Brewers first baseman is approaching free agency as one of MLB’s most unexpected breakout players. Bauers won't find himself in that scenario this coming offseason, and his story deserves far more attention than it’s received.
Jake Bauers’ Brewers breakout has completely changed his free-agent value
Bauers enters Friday hitting .268 with 24 home runs, 78 RBIs, and a terrific .884 OPS through 131 games, and he’s been a crucial part of the Brewers’ offense all season. Trust us when we say that he’s not an example of a veteran journeyman randomly catching fire over a six-week stretch.
Although he’s battled shin splints in recent weeks, Bauers is still performing at a career-best level. He’s already totaled 3.0 bWAR, which is tied for No. 65 among position players and says enough on its own. But consider that Baseball-Reference valued his bWAR at -1.2 through his first six seasons, and that was after posting 0.6 bWAR in 85 games last year.
Jake Bauers breaks the tie for the @Brewers after a 12-pitch AB! pic.twitter.com/FKcrowkRje
— MLB (@MLB) August 22, 2026
In other words: Bauers was worth -1.9 bWAR over his first 528 games, yet he kept fighting and trying to prove that he belonged. Remarkable. “I think Jake has been through enough in his career that he’s come into his own,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said last month. “He has a belief system now. He understands who he is.”
What could Bauers earn as a free agent?
A multi-year contract for Bauers could be something in the vicinity of a two-year, $16 million deal. Alternatively, Bauers profiles as someone worthy of a one-year, $10 million contract for a rebuilding team looking to flip him at next summer’s trade deadline.
As of publication, there have been no credible reports regarding Bauers and the Brewers discussing a new contract. He is eligible to receive the qualifying offer, which is expected to be roughly $23 million.
Personally, I believe Bauers would be wise to follow in Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham’s footsteps. Rather than test free agency last winter following an uncharacteristic 34-home run campaign, Grisham agreed to play on the qualifying offer: a one-year, $22 million deal, all of which was guaranteed.
Grisham’s .OPS has dropped from .811 to .703, and his bWAR has plummeted from 3.5 to 0.6. It’s difficult to envision him securing a notable contract this coming winter, especially if his hamstring injury costs him the postseason. But Grisham parlayed an improbable season into significant guaranteed money over a one-year deal, and Bauers should jump if given the same opportunity. He and the Brewers remain a perfect fit for one another, so why dissolve the marriage?
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