It has been a season of peaks and valleys for the Chicago Cubs, who can look like the best team or the worst team in turns. Right now, Chicago is on an ill-timed downswing, having lost four straight to fall to 81-66. That puts Chicago 10.0 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central, and only 3.0 games ahead of seventh-place Arizona — the first team out in the NL Wild Card race.
The Cubs' offense is a buzzsaw and thus the Northsiders can heat up at a moment's notice. Their pitching staff, however, remains a huge weakness. If Clay Holmes starts to regress, the Cubs will have next to nothing going for them pitchers-wise. The bullpen is a mess, the rotation is weaker than any other NL contender. Chicago is more vulnerable than folks think.
What is the Cubs magic number to make the playoffs?
The Cubs' magic number entering Thursday is 13. The formula for magic numbers, per MLB.com, is: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). For Chicago, that comes out to: 15 + 1 - (69-66) = 13. Essentially, the Cubs need a combined 13 wins and Diamondbacks losses to clinch a Wild Card spot.
There was a time very recently when it felt like the Cubs were a lock in the 4-5 matchup. The Cubs aren't going to catch the Brewers barring a titanic collapse from the very consistent first-place team, so now their focus is on staving off teams from the rear. Both San Diego and Arizona are threats — especially the Padres, who have rapidly closed the gap with four straight wins.
What is the Dodgers' magic number to win the NL Central?
The Cubs are 10.0 games behind Milwaukee, meaning Chicago's magic number to avoid elimination in the NL Central race is six. If the Brewers win six games or the Cubs lose six games, the division belongs to Milwaukee. The Cubs would need to win 11 games with as many Brewers losses for the division to flip in their favor — and improbable outcome, to say the least.
Chicago needs to focus its energies on the Wild Card race, to be blunt. There was plenty of time to close the gap with Milwaukee in July and August, but the Brewers never let their foot off the gas pedal, even when the Cubs caught fire.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Cubs postseason matchups
Philadelphia Phillies
If the season ended today, the Cubs would claim the No. 5 seed and travel to face No. 4 Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. It's a fascinating chess match on paper. The Cubs' lineup is far more potent and Chicago has hammered left-handed pitching all season; two of the Phillies' top aces, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, are southpaws.
On the other hand, Sánchez and Luzardo will both finish top-five in NL Cy Young voting and — when right — are more or less matchup-proof. Philadelphia has the best on-paper rotation in the National League and their bullpen, while not infallible, is much stronger than Chicago's relief unit. Meanwhile, the Phillies struggle most against left-handed pitching. Chicago can toss out Matthew Boyd and Shōta Imanaga. Neither is particularly reliable, but Philadelphia might flounder all the same.
The Phillies are probably narrow favorites in that series, especially with a raucous home crowd behind them. If the Cubs their current 1.5-game deficit in the standings and host that series from Wrigley Field, however, perhaps the tide turns in their favor.
Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers
The Cubs are currently 2.5 games ahead of San Diego in the Wild Card standings (and 3.0 games ahead of Arizona). Should Chicago continue to fall, there's a chance the Cubs end up as the No. 6 seed. That would pit the Northsiders against the No. 3 seed, which will either be the NL East champion Braves (or Phillies) or the NL West champion Dodgers. The Brewers, technically, could fall to the No. 3 seed, but it's mathematically improbable. Milwaukee has a 5.5-game lead over third-place Atlanta currently.
L.A. currently holds a four-game lead over Atlanta in the standings, which means the Braves are the most likely matchup in a 3-6 showdown. The Braves, much like the Cubs, are a bit shorthanded in the rotation, although Chris Sale provides a major Game 1 advantage — especially at home. What separates them is Atlanta's elite bullpen, which ranks among the best is baseball. The Braves are far better equipped to hold a lead in the late innings, which means Chicago would be fighting an uphill battle, at least on paper.
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