Twice in a row now, the Chicago Cubs have had a chance to punch their ticket to the postseason — and take a big step toward hosting their first-round series at Wrigley Field — against the already-eliminated Miami Marlins. And twice in a row, the North Siders have stubbed their toe, with consecutive losses keeping the champagne on ice.
The good news? Craig Counsell's team gets one more shot at Miami on Thursday afternoon, and it's not like the Cubs are at serious risk of missing the postseason. The bad news? Their recent skid has seen the San Diego Padres pass them by in the race for the top NL Wild Card spot, and a nor'easter in Boston this weekend has thrown their season-ending series against the Red Sox into disarray. Here's what Chicago needs to get across the finish line, and what could be awaiting them once October begins.
What is the Cubs magic number to make the playoffs?
The Cubs' magic number to clinch a postseason berth remains at 1, just as it was on Wednesday night. Chicago enters play on Thursday at 87-71; the only team on the outside of the playoff picture that's still mathematically alive are the seventh-place Arizona Diamondbacks, who sit at 84-74 after a win over the Rockies on Wednesday.
There equation to determine magic number, per MLB.com, is: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). For our purposes here, though, we can remove the "+1" from the mix — since the Cubs have already clinched the season series against Arizona, any tie would break in their favor. That leaves us with 4 remaining games - (74-71) = 1. With Chicago three games up on the D-backs with four games to play, any Cubs win over Arizona loss from here on out gets the job done for the North Siders.
MLB playoff picture: Cubs have work to do to start October at Wrigley Field
So the Cubs don't have a ton to worry about regarding making the postseason; as long as they don't lose out, and as long as Arizona doesn't win out, they're safe. But just making it to October isn't good enough for a team with a whole lot of championship pressure on their shoulders. Chicago won't be satisfied without a deep run, and that becomes far more difficult if the Cubs have to start their playoff journey on the road.
Which, if the season ended today, would be the case. Chicago's two straight losses have seen them be passed up in the standings by the Padres, which now hold a one-game lead over the Cubs for the top NL Wild Card spot. As things stand, Chicago would head west for a rematch of last year's Wild Card series.
The Cubs won five of six games against San Diego this season, so again they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. And the Padres don't have an easy closing schedule, with one more game against the Dodgers in L.A. on Thursday and then three against the desperate D-backs over the weekend. But Chicago has work to do to avoid heading halfway across the country to play what's been one of the hottest teams in the league in recent weeks.
Of course, that's not the only scenario at play for Chicago. They're currently tied in the standings with the Philadelphia Phillies, ahead only by virtue of holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. Philly has one more game against the Brewers before three against a Rays team that's already clinched the AL East and the top overall seed. If the Cubs aren't careful, they could drop all the way down to the No. 6 spot, which would mean a trip to face the Braves in Atlanta in the Wild Card Round.
Cubs projected playoff rotation, lineup amid Alex Bregman injury
This is not the time of year when teams want to be dealing with injury uncertainty, but unfortunately that's the position the Cubs find themselves in. The pitching staff has been in disarray all year; now it's the lineup's turn, as Alex Bregman suffered a scary facial fracture this past weekend that has put his postseason availability in doubt. As things stand, he and the team sound optimistic about his availability for the Wild Card Round, which would leave Chicago with a lineup that looks like this:
Cubs projected postseason lineup
Position | Player |
|---|---|
CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong |
RF | Seiya Suzuki |
1B | Michael Busch |
3B | Alex Bregman |
LF | Ian Happ |
2B | Nico Hoerner |
DH | Michael Conforto |
SS | Dansby Swanson |
C | Carson Kelly |
If Bregman isn't able to go, youngsters Pedro Ramirez and/or Matt Shaw would likely fill in at third base. Overall, though, the Cubs have one of the deeper lineups in baseball, and that group should be pretty well locked in for Counsell as the team enters October. The more pressing question is how he handles his rotation, especially in light of Kevin Gausman leaving his start on Wednesday night with a shoulder issue.
Cubs projected postseason rotation
Role | Pitcher |
|---|---|
SP1 | Shota Imanaga |
SP2 | Kevin Gausman |
SP3 | Clay Holmes |
SP4 | Matthew Boyd |
Gausman suffered the injury while diving to tag out a baserunner against Miami. For now, we'll assume that he'll be good to go by next week, in which case his October experience would likely slot him in as one of Chicago's three starters for the Wild Card Round alongside Shota Imanaga and Clay Holmes. If not, though, Matthew Boyd would be the next man up, with Edward Cabrera and Javier Assad now in relief roles.
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