Cubs-Padres and 4 series that will determine the MLB Wild Card standings

With both the All-Star break and the trade deadline rapidly approaching, this is the point of the MLB season at which the contenders typically separate themselves from the pretenders. But while a few true World Series favorites have emerged, seemingly 80 percent of the league can still cling to hope of a playoff spot as we near July.

Seriously, just get a hold of the current Wild Card standings in both leagues. A full nine teams are within 4.5 games of each other in the AL, with the New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners currently occupying the three postseason spots entering play on Monday.

On the NL side, things are almost as crowded, with eight teams within just three games.

That's 17 teams total — more than half the league! — all within striking distance. And with such little margin for error, just about every series carries an outsized impact on October. Here are the ones to watch this week that could go a long way toward deciding how the Wild Card race ultimately shakes out.

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

The Padres survived a six-game stretch against Atlanta and the Dodgers at 4-2, still keeping their heads above water despite getting next to nothing from their biggest offensive stars. The trend line is still pointing in the wrong direction, though, and now they have to travel to Chicago to take on a Cubs team that has won eight of 10 to turn things around after an early-summer swoon.

The vultures haven't stopped circling over Wrigley just yet, but Chicago's offense is looking more and more like its old self in carrying a pitching staff that's been tore apart by injuries. The winner here is going to have a ton of momentum (not to mention a playoff spot) heading toward the All-Star break; the loser, on the other hand, is going to have to answer some very tough questions about how aggressively its front office wants to buy.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

These in-state rivals are trending in opposite directions right now. The Phillies keep on rolling under Don Mattingly, winners of seven of their last 10 games thanks to Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and a dynamite front of the rotation. The Pirates, meanwhile, started fast but have since slid back to .500, and now it's an open question whether Pittsburgh will even be buying at the trade deadline.

Paul Skenes and Co. desperately need a series win to turn the tide and prove that they are in fact playoff contenders, because if not, things could spiral out of control in a hurry. Really, the same is true of the Phillies: The reality of that slow start is that it left this team with very little wiggle room, and every game is crucial in trying to hold on to home-field advantage in the Wild Card round.

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians

Not too long ago, the Rangers looked like they were trending towards selling. After a weekend sweep of the Blue Jays in Toronto, though, they now lead their division. Such is life in the AL West, where hardly anyone is ever truly out of it (well, unless you're the Los Angeles Angels). The Mariners still can't get their act together, but Seattle still has as much talent as anyone in the league, and Texas would do well to build as much of a cushion for themselves as possible — they're just a game up on the field for the third Wild Card spot, after all.

Cleveland is about to wrap up a disappointing June, and while they're still in pretty good shape for a Wild Card spot, they're losing ground to the upstart White Sox in the AL Central. These are two eminently winnable divisions, but neither of these teams inspires a ton of confidence. Will one of them be able to find some more consistency ahead of the deadline?

Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox

Most of New England is busy writing Craig Breslow's obituary, but the reality is that, after a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park, the Red Sox are just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot — with ample time to get even closer ahead of the trade deadline. The Nationals, on the other hand, are well ahead of schedule and probably won't buy too aggressively no matter what, but hey: two games out of a playoff spot is still two games out of a playoff spot. These teams are something of a mirror image of one another; if you combined Boston's rotation with Washington's lineup, you'd really have something. Both of them feel like long shots at present, but that could change in a hurry this week.

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

Speaking of underwhelming American League teams who nonetheless have a very real chance at nabbing a Wild Card spot! The run differentials in this series are -30 and -42, respectively, hardly the sort of thing you'd associate with October. And yet, both of these offenses are really humming; if either can get just enough pitching, what's to stop them from making a playoff push? Then again, both of these front offices won't need much of an excuse to clean house, so the loser of this series could be in real trouble.

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

Remember when these two teams met in a classic seven-game ALCS? That feels like lifetimes ago now, with Toronto losers of six in a row (and decimated by injury) and Seattle below .500 and seemingly incapable of one step forward without two steps back. Then again, it's not that hard to talk yourself into either of these teams having enough to be real pennant contenders anyway, especially if the Jays can finally get healthy. While the Mariners have the benefit of playing in the AL West, the Blue Jays are running out of runway and need to stop the bleeding ASAP.

Miami Marlins at Athletics

Remind me again why exactly MLB owners think we need a salary cap? Neither the Marlins nor the A's would be confused for big spenders, and yet here they are, each 1.5 games back of the third and final Wild Card spot in their respective leagues. Miami has been the more impressive team of late, winners of eight of their last 10 behind an exciting young core. They'll need to keep winning in order to keep pace with the more well-resourced teams ahead of them, though.

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