Back in July, we celebrated the All-Star Game by looking at which participants had the best chance of eventually earning induction into the Hall of Fame. The likes of Bryce Harper, Justin Verlander, and Mike Trout all were locks, and rightfully so.
But as the MLB playoffs prepare to kick off, Verlander and Trout are once again sitting at home. Harper and the Phillies survived a near-collapse to secure a Wild Card seed, and he’s one of many postseason participants who could — and in his case, should — find themselves in the Hall of Fame one day.
Besides the obvious counting stats, what makes a Hall of Famer? As we’ve previously noted, baseball fans have recently accepted 40 bWAR as the standard for a remarkable career. Immaculate Grid is to thank on that front, even if there are players who have cleared that mark but don’t feel like Hall of Famers. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, who is injured but has a 47.1 bWAR, is a perfect example, and he didn’t crack our list.
Instead, let’s turn our attention to someone who may very well become the second unanimous electee when his time comes.
Honorable mention: The Shohei Ohtani tier
Barring any unprecedented rule changes, Hall of Fame candidates must have 10 full seasons worth of experience for eligibility. That means Shohei Ohtani would technically be ineligible if he retired tomorrow, so he won’t land in the “lock” tier.
But Ohtani has always been a unicorn, so him having his own category makes all too much sense. We can all agree that, at this time next year, Ohtani should be a lock on that list.
Not yet eligible, but…
These guys don’t get their own table, but we wanted to address their situations ahead of the playoffs.
- Aroldis Chapman, P, Boston Red Sox: Off the numbers alone, Chapman and his 402 saves (ninth all-time) likely warrant induction. However, he also served a 30-game suspension in 2016 for violating the league’s domestic violence policy. It’s difficult to envision him earning the 75 percent required for election. Recent voting trends don’t work in favor of those who have been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs (more on that soon) or off-field incidents.
- Cam Schlittler, SP, New York Yankees and Jacob Misirowski, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: We’re lumping these two together because both will be trending during the playoffs. Just because these two are likely to win their league’s respective Cy Young Awards doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed a spot in Cooperstown. Heck, we don’t even know if they’ll pitch long enough to appear on a ballot! But, you know how baseball fans are.
- Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B/RF, San Diego Padres: As things currently stand, Tatis has no chance of getting into the Hall of Fame. Voters have made it clear that those who serve PED-related suspensions, as Tatis did in 2022, aren’t welcome in Cooperstown unless they buy a ticket. That said, we’re including him here
- Tarik Skubal, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Skubal became the 23rd pitcher in MLB history to win multiple Cy Young Awards, which will appeal to voters who prefer the "dominant" peak. But we’d like to see at least two or three more years of him being at least above-average. He’s also only seven seasons in, so he has a lot of work left.
On pace to make it into Cooperstown
- Alex Bregman, Chicago Cubs - 48.9 bWAR
- Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves - 44.2 bWAR
- Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros - 30.5 bWAR
These three have team success, specifically at least one World Series ring, working in their favor. Alvarez is likely to win AL MVP, and the 29-year-old is young enough that clearing 40 bWAR shouldn’t be an issue so long as healthy.
Bregman turns 33 next March, and his bWAR is likely far greater than you’d have guessed. But is he truly on a Hall of Fame trajectory? He's nowhere close to 2,000 hits (1,411) or 300 home runs (237), both of which are vital numbers when playing the hot corner.
Consider, though, that Bregman has averaged 24 home runs, 84 RBIs, 32 doubles, and 4.6 bWAR over the last five years. He’s under contract through 2030, and exceeded all of those numbers (28 home runs, 93 RBIs, 33 doubles, and 5.8 bWAR) this season.
If Bregman were to continue averaging those numbers, he’d end the 2031 season with 333 home runs, roughly 2,200 hits, and 481 doubles. Oh, and his bWAR would be right around 72.0, so we imagine he’d be a first-ballot inductee.
Unfortunately for him and Olson, the possibility of a work stoppage could have a monumental impact on their final counting stats. Which leads us into…
Borderline veterans
- Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees - 47.0 bWAR
- Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies - 46.6 bWAR
- Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees - 45.8 bWAR
- Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers - 45.1 bWAR
- Xander Bogaerts, SS, San Diego Padres - 44.3 bWAR
- Max Fried, P, New York Yankees - 32.3 bWAR
- Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH, Philadelphia Phillies - 22.3 bWAR
Stanton and Schwarber’s cases are likely dependent on whether they surpass 500 home runs. The latter will enter next season at 385 homers, and he turns 34 in March. But the looming work stoppage could significantly affect his chances of reaching 400 anytime soon.
As for Stanton, multiple lower-body injuries limited him to three homers in 24 games. Although he has 466 career home runs, the 2017 NL MVP turns 37 in November and is a free agent after next year.
The only members of the 500-home run club who aren’t in the Hall of Fame are either ineligible or have ties to performance-enhancing drugs. It’d be pretty remarkable if Schwarber and Stanton both cleared the historic total yet fell short of Cooperstown.
Personally, Wheeler and Cole are probably the only ones who will have a legitimate Hall of Fame résumé when they become eligible. The rest of those guys are Hall of Very Good at best. Much like Skubal, we need two or three more elite seasons from Fried before we’d even consider voting for him.
Go ahead and make the Hall of Fame plaque
- Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers - 79.0 bWAR
- Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers - 66.8 bWAR
- Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees - 65.1 bWAR
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees - 64.2 bWAR
- Manny Machado, San Diego Padres - 63.3 bWAR
- Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves - 62.7 bWAR
- José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians - 60.3 bWAR
- Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies - 56.9 bWAR
- Jose Altuve, Houston Astros - 53.4 bWAR
Outside of Goldschmidt and Sale, none of these names are overly surprising. And no, the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal shouldn’t impact Altuve, especially not after Carlos Beltrán just entered the Hall of Fame.
Goldschmidt currently ranks 143rd on the all-time bWAR list, and only 31 men above him aren’t already enshrined. But of the 20 who are or were eligible, most came up short for PED or off-field reasons. The question then becomes whether he’s wearing a Diamondbacks or Cardinals cap, or if he opts for the blank hat.
Although Sale turns 38 next March, he has a lifetime 2.95 ERA and 2,779 strikeouts, putting him within range of reaching 3,000. There’s absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t be a first-ballot selection.
As for the rest? You know a Hall of Famer when you see one, and they more than meet the expectations.
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