Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- With the MLB trade deadline approaching, several contenders have clear needs that could shape the postseason.
- The Phillies are desperate for defensive upgrades while the Mariners seek a pitcher who can perform consistently on the road.
- Atlanta's elite bullpen needs more reliable starting pitching to maximize its chances in the playoffs.
The MLB trade deadline is special among the major American sports, since (theoretically) anyone can trade for anyone. There are no cap restrictions (yet), and so you might wake up on Aug. 3 and find out that the Miami Marlins had traded for every last penny of Juan Soto’s $765 million contract. Hey, it’s not technically impossible.
What contenders do or don’t do at the deadline could very well shape the MLB postseason, and given the looming-impending-really-super-duper-scarily-soon lockout on the horizon, this might be our last deadline for a hot minute. So let’s get cracking and solve some problems!
Eligibility note: I was pretty stringent with my definition of a “contender,” and limited the list to teams that had a greater than three percent chance of winning the World Series according to FanGraphs. That does not mean every other team is a seller, just that they narrowly (sorry, Pirates and Guardians) or not-so-narrowly (sorry, Mets) missed the cut.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- World Series Odds: 27.3 percent
- Biggest Need: Utility
When you’re as good as the Dodgers, “need” is a pretty strong word. But Los Angeles is pretty thin behind their all-universe starting lineup, particularly in the infield. I could see them targeting second base or another slot, if for no other reason than to have insurance on the world’s most expensive Ferrari.
New York Yankees
- World Series Odds: 11.1 percent
- Biggest need: Stopgap Major League bats
I was at a Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Railriders (Yankees Triple-A affiliate) game in April, and I was floored how many of Railriders I saw in Boston when the Yankees were swept by Boston in June. This is an extraordinarily injured team, one that is relying on a lot of Quad-A players for too many at-bats. When healthy and Aaron Judge'd up, they’re almost certainly the best team in the American League. But winning the division in the meantime will be a challenge, and reinforcements at catcher and somewhere in the infield (whether at third, shortstop or even second) would do wonders.
Milwaukee Brewers
- World Series Odds: 9.0 percent
- Biggest need: Another arm to help out Jacob Misiorowski (and Lance McCullers Jr.)
The Miz and his exploits have been legendary, but with Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff in some unclear injury territory, Milwaukee could do with some more starting pitching to make a real run at this thing, and they could double down past their recent Lance McCullers Jr. acquisition … unless we want to roll the clock back to the 1910s and start pitching Misiorowksi every day. We could, uh, I guess we could do that.
Seattle Mariners
- World Series Odds: 8.1 percent
- Biggest need: A pitcher with experience in other stadiums
I’m about to blow your mind: Bryan Woo, Seattle’s ace, is 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA at home. He is 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA on the road. Logan Gilbert has the opposite splits, much better on the road than he is at the very-pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Seattle’s rotation as a whole thrives at home but not so much on the road; balancing all this out isn’t the worst idea for a team not wanting much for offensive talent.
Philadelphia Phillies
- World Series Odds: 7.2 percent
- Biggest need: Defense, any defense at all; we’re desperate
The Phillies have turned their season way around are have made the contenders list in mid-July! But they are also dead-last in Defesnive Runs Saved, not the slot you want to occupy when avant-garde wisdom says run prevention is the way to win baseball games. Trea Turner continues to offer very little as a defensive shortstop (and as a hitter) and I wonder if the Phillies could look to shore up the infield.
Tampa Bay Rays
- World Series Odds: 6.8 percent
- Biggest need: More power
For a 56-36 division-leading team, the Rays still do not profile as much of an offensive threat in the postseason. Their contact quality remains well below-average, and I’m skeptical of high-average roster construction over time. Maybe I’m wrong.
Atlanta Braves
- World Series Odds: 5.7 percent
- Biggest need: Starting pitching for their elite bullpen to play off of
I’m putting Atlanta’s often-vaunted starting rotation on fraud watch, and I think they need to prioritize that spot if they have any real interest in going for it. When you’re this Chris Sale-dependent with his injury history, you have to start thinking about how to protect your advantages.
Chicago Cubs
- World Series Odds: 3.6 percent
- Biggest need: A pitching lifeline
Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown and Jameson Taillon are all currently on the 15-day IL. Cade Horton is done for the year, while it's anyone's guess when Justin Steele will actually be able to return as he continues to rehab from last year's Tommy John surgery (or if he'll have enough runway to be able to stretch out and join the rotation). Chicago's lineup has come around, but this pitching situation is approaching a four-alarm fire.
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