We would assume, as dangerous as that is, that the fading Chicago White Sox aren’t in the mood to hear a tired cliché. But when you spend 96 days in first place, it’s hard not to remind a young team that “it’s not how you start, but how you finish.”
Those without a true stake in the White Sox’s future might call the AL Central race fascinating, especially after Friday’s ugly loss to the Tigers. Chicago allowed nine unanswered in the eighth, turning an 8-2 lead into an 11-8 loss. Elsewhere, the Guardians moved into sole possession of first place with a comeback win over the lowly Athletics.
Chicago scored six unearned runs in the first inning but watched Sean Newcomb and the bullpen implode. The 33-year-old reliever has a 13.50 ERA in eight September innings and has seen his season ERA jump from 2.19 to 3.24 over that stretch.
“Everyone has been saying it: It’s playoff baseball essentially as far as it being a tight race and coming down game to game,” Newcomb said. “Doesn’t get more frustrating than that.”
If it’s any consolation, the 78-76 White Sox hold a one-game lead over the Rangers for the AL’s final Wild Card spot; they’d face No. 3 Houston in the first round, assuming that the next nine days don’t turn into an utter nightmare.
How can the Chicago White Sox win the AL Central?
The White Sox and Guardians both have eight games left, so let’s take a quick look at what the next nine days look like. The way that we see it, there are two clear ways the White Sox can win the AL Central.
Win all of their remaining games
Well, duh.
In all seriousness, this is obviously the easiest way for the White Sox to win the AL Central. They have eight games left, and all are against losing teams. Kansas City is three losses away from hitting 90, and the Rockies entered Saturday at 56-98. So it’s not like the South Siders are facing Murderer’s Row down the stretch.
But anyone even the tiniest bit familiar with sports knows things are never that easy. That 121-loss White Sox team in 2024 took four of six from the Rays, who finished 80-82. We’ve seen some bad baseball teams over the last decade, yet some people still believe they’ll always lose 9-1.
Could the White Sox go 8-0? Sure. Will they? Probably not, especially when you consider that they haven’t had a winning streak longer than five games.
The Chicago White Sox’s most realistic path to winning the AL Central
Assuming that the White Sox don’t rattle off eight consecutive wins, they’d likely need to go at least 6-2 in that span and hope the Guardians split four of their final eight games at max.
Cleveland potentially going 6-2 means the White Sox must finish 7-1 or sweep what’s left of their schedule. We’re skeptical either of those scenarios will come to fruition.
Considering how far the White Sox have come, it admittedly feels unfair to say they’d have no one to blame but themselves for losing the AL Central — or even potentially missing the postseason outright. Good luck finding anyone outside of Chicago who genuinely believed Will Venable's club would stay in the division race this long.
Yet it feels like the White Sox have overachieved, at least in our eyes. Baseball-Reference lists their expected win-loss record at 80-74, but they’ve done all of this without a legitimate MVP slugger or dominant ace atop the rotation. You typically don’t see such a drastic positive turnaround when lacking those game-changers.
But maybe we’re not giving the White Sox’s young core enough credit. Chase Meidroth, Tristan Peters, and Miguel Vargas have all been worth at least 3.8 bWAR, and none are older than 26.
As for whether the White Sox are built to contend next year, that’s certainly a conversation worth having this offseason. Being aggressive in free agency, especially with regard to the rotation, would go a long way in building our faith.
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