It's hardly ground-breaking analysis to say that a team that wins Game 1 of a best-of-seven series on the road is now in control of that series. The Cleveland Guardians snatched home-field advantage from the Tampa Bay Rays with a 7-3 win on Monday night, and now are guaranteed to head back to Progressive Field for Games 3-5 with at minimum a 1-1 split — and a chance to close things out without ever having to return to the Trop.
But somehow that doesn't even fully capture the shift that took place in Game 1. Because Game 1 was supposed to be something of a sunk cost: Not only did the Rays have a significant rest advantage after sweeping the New York Yankees in the ALDS, but they also got to line up their starting rotation while the Guardians were using every available arm to eke out a five-game win over the Chicago White Sox.
And yet the Guards got the job done anyway, winning a game in which they threw out Foster Griffin against Rays Cy Young candidate Drew Rasmussen. Now Tampa has to climb back into this series without the benefit of their ace for the next three games, while Cleveland's best arms are still to come.
ALCS pitching matchups give Guardians a huge edge after Game 1 win over Rays
It's hard to overstate the extent to which Tampa could not afford to drop Game 1, given the way the pitching matchups shook out. Now the Rays need to win four out of six, and here's how the next three line up in terms of scheduled starters:
- Game 2: Parker Messick vs. Freddy Peralta
- Game 3: Gavin Williams vs. Nick Martinez
- Game 4: Daniel Espino/Joey Cantillo vs. Griffin Jax/Ian Seymour
All of a sudden, Cleveland sure feels like the favorites here. Messick and Williams were two of the best pitchers in the AL this season, and the Guardians have to like their chances when that duo takes the mound. Martinez had a career year and Peralta has been significantly improved after coming over to Tampa at the trade deadline, but neither are the sort of workhorse that you feel good about turning over a lineup multiple times in October.
Is it possible that the Rays win Games 2 and 3 and make all of this look moot? Of course; the postseason is won and lost on the margins, and Tampa was the best team in the American League this season for a reason. Messick is still a rookie, after all, while Williams can alternate between dominant and erratic depending on whether he has his command on a given day.
That said, it's clear where the advantage lies. And from there, both teams will likely be looking at some sort of all-hands-on-deck situation for Game 4, with Cleveland likely going with Daniel Espino as an opener while the Rays turn to some combination of Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour — their Nos. 4 and 5 starters in the regular season — for two or three innings at a time. Of course, this series may well be functionally over by then, as the Guardians bring a suddenly surging offense and twin aces to the table with no shortage of confidence.
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