The beauty and the terror of the current MLB playoff format is how quickly things can turn. On Sunday evening, the Philadelphia Phillies were celebrating making it to the postseason at all. Now, less than 48 hours later, they find themselves already facing elimination.
That's life in a best-of-three Wild Card series, and that's the uphill climb now facing Don Mattingly's team after coughing up a late lead in a 5-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves in Game 1. Philly now must win two games in a row, on the road, in order to keep their season alive and put off an offseason full of tough questions.
We wish we had some good news to offer the City of Brotherly Love at a time like this. Unfortunately, recent Wild Card history isn't on their side when it comes to digging out of an 0-1 hole.
How often to teams come back from a 0-1 deficit in MLB Wild Card series?
MLB first went to a best-of-three format in the Wild Card Round back in 2020, as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic shortening the regular season. After a year off in 2021, they made the switch permanent in 2022.
That means there have been 24 total best-of-three Wild Card series, 12 each in the AL and NL. And the team that lost Game 1 has come back to win this series just three times. On the American League side, it's happened twice: Once in 2020, when the A's rallied for two straight wins against the Chicago White Sox, and once just last year, when the New York Yankees pulled off a comeback against the Boston Red Sox.
Year | Game 1 winner | Won series? |
|---|---|---|
2020 | Tampa Bay Rays | Yes (2-0) |
2020 | Chicago White Sox | No |
2020 | Houston Astros | Yes (2-0) |
2020 | New York Yankees | Yes (2-0) |
2022 | Cleveland Guardians | Yes (2-0) |
2022 | Seattle Mariners | Yes (2-0) |
2023 | Minnesota Twins | Yes (2-0) |
2023 | Texas Rangers | Yes (2-0) |
2024 | Detroit Tigers | Yes (2-0) |
2024 | Kansas City Royals | Yes (2-0) |
2025 | Detroit Tigers | Yes (2-1) |
2025 | Boston Red Sox | No |
The picture is even bleaker on the NL side, where only one team has ever dropped the first game only to come back and win the series. That was the San Diego Padres in 2020, who lost Game 1 at home only to win a thrilling Game 2 and then ride a shutout in Game 3 to the NLDS.
Year | Game 1 winner | Won series? |
|---|---|---|
2020 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Yes (2-0) |
2020 | Atlanta Braves | Yes (2-0) |
2020 | Miami Marlins | Yes (2-0) |
2020 | St. Louis Cardinals | No |
2022 | Philadelphia Phillies | Yes (2-0) |
2022 | San Diego Padres | Yes (2-1) |
2023 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Yes (2-0) |
2023 | Philadelphia Phillies | Yes (2-0) |
2024 | New York Mets | Yes (2-1) |
2024 | San Diego Padres | Yes (2-0) |
2025 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Yes (2-0) |
2025 | Chicago Cubs | Yes (2-1) |
Even more damningly, just six of 24 best-of-three Wild Card series have even gone longer than two games. This format offers very, very little margin for error, and that could spell doom for a Phillies team that entered the playoffs with massive expectations.
Can the Phillies mount a comeback after Game 1 loss?
To state the obvious, things aren't looking good. If you want a silver lining, it comes in the pitching matchups: Philly will send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound on Wednesday, and if they survive Game 2, they'll have the option of throwing Zack Wheeler on short rest in Game 3 (with Andrew Painter and Aaron Nola each waiting in the wings).
Atlanta will counter with Tyler Mahle in Game 2, and it's as yet unclear what their Game 3 plan would be with Martin Perez not on the roster. Mahle has been great for the Braves since coming over at the trade deadline, but the advantage in each case would almost certainly go to the Phils. This is far from over.
Then again, winning two games in a row on the road is a tough ask under even the best of circumstances. And Philly's offense is far from the best of circumstances right now — this team just cannot be counted on to score more than two or three runs in a given game, and that's a tough way to live.
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