We're now officially into 2026, and MLB fans are still waiting to see where most of the biggest free agents of this offseason will wind up playing this season and beyond. We got a bit of a flurry around the Winter Meetings, but beyond that, it's been a long, slow crawl through the winter, with everyone from Kyle Tucker to Framber Valdez to Bichette still out there — and seemingly not much of anything in the way of momentum toward a blockbuster deal.
Some good news, though: We're about to get a noteworthy free agency decision very soon, as Japanese infielder Kazuma Okamoto's posting window is about to expire. Okamoto has until the evening of Monday, Jan. 5, to sign with an MLB team or he'll be forced to play the 2026 season back in Japan, meaning he has every reason to get a deal done. Of course, the question of why a player like Okamoto — a six-time NPB All-Star who hit .322/.411/.581 this past season — has still yet to find a contract requires a bit of explanation.
Why Kazuma Okamoto still hasn't signed with an MLB team yet
How the Japanese posting system works
When an NPB player decides he wants to come to the Majors, he requests to be posted — i.e., to be made available to big-league teams as a free agent. His Japanese team has the right to either grant or deny that request. If the request is denied, the player remains in NPB until next offseason; if the request is granted, MLB's commissioner is notified, and the player gets set to enter free agency.
Once a player's posting is announced, a 45-day window is initiated in which that player can negotiate and sign a contract with any Major League team. If that window comes and goes without a deal being reached, the player reverts back to his NPB team for one more year. Okamoto was officially posted on Nov. 20, and his window opened the following morning (8 a.m. ET on Nov. 21). The 45-day window runs through the end of business (5 p.m. ET) on Monday, Jan. 5, meaning that he has precious little time left to reach an agreement with an MLB team.
As of yet, there's been little public movement in Okamoto's market. But as we just saw with countrymen like Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, that doesn't mean a contract isn't coming — and soon. It just means that big-league teams have no reason not to drag this out until the last possible moment.
A slow-moving offseason is holding everyone hostage
In sports like the NFL and the NBA — both of which have salary caps, and one of which has max contracts — the meaningful portion of free agency is over in a matter of days, if not hours. But baseball is a bit different: The lack of a cap, and the ambiguity when it comes to each team's payroll and how much they're willing to spend, means that markets are much more fluid. For the top players available each winter, it's not just a matter of choosing where you'd like to play. It's a matter of playing the waiting game, trying to exercise every ounce of leverage you can in hopes of squeezing out an extra few million.
Okamoto isn't that caliber of free agent; he's an intriguing player thanks to his defensive versatility (some teams are reportedly open to testing him out in left field, in addition to third and first base) and his balanced offensive profile, but he's yet to prove it against Major League pitching and he doesn't have any one particularly loud tool that would portend future stardom. He's clearly below guys like Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger on the totem pole: What contract he might be able to get depends in large part on which teams land the players above him in the hierarchy and how much is left over afterward.
Which goes a long way toward explaining why there's been little momentum in his market to date, despite the ticking clock. There's simply no reason to lock yourself into a deal with Okamoto when so many other, more enticing options remain on the board. But as the calendar flips to January and the biggest names appear no closer to breaking this gridlock, someone's going to have to take the plunge — and there are a few obvious candidates.
Which teams have the best chance at landing Okamoto in free agency?
Boston Red Sox
Boston knows that, even if Alex Bregman returns, it needs another corner bat this winter; there's a reason they were in on both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, despite ultimately missing out on both. Okamoto isn't that caliber of bat — and he doesn't bring the sort of middle-of-the-order pop the Red Sox are searching for — but he can offer an insurance policy in case Bregman walks, or a platoon partner with Masataka Yoshida. Still, the Willson Contreras deal likely takes Boston out of the running here.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have been tied to Okamoto at various points this winter, although it's tough to see exactly how he'd fit. He could platoon with Michael Busch at first base, although Busch really is worthy of being a full-time player at this point. Or maybe Chicago has its eyes on moving Nico Hoerner (a free agent after 2026), sliding Matt Shaw to second and putting Okamoto at third?
Pittsburgh Pirates
On paper, the Pirates would seem to make all the sense in the world. They need to keep adding offense even after acquiring Brandon Lowe (via trade) and Ryan O'Hearn (via free agency), and Okamoto would figure to bring some upside on a budget for a team that still doesn't have a ton to spend. There are needs at first base and third base, and maybe even the outfield if he can hack it on the grass.
San Diego Padres
San Diego's top-heavy lineup is in desperate need of some more depth, and ownership turmoil has left AJ Preller without a ton of resources to get that done. Okamoto would fit in beautifully as a first-base option on the cheap to put another professional hitter behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado.
Seattle Mariners
Despite re-signing Josh Naylor, the Mariners still have holes to fill at third base, right field and DH. Okamoto is qualified for any one of the three, and he would figure to fit neatly within Seattle's budget. If Jerry DiPoto isn't going to make a real run at one of the bigger fish (and a Ketel Marte trade is no longer on the table), this is a nice fallback option.
Toronto Blue Jays
Our own Robert Murray flagged Toronto as a sleeper here, and it's not hard to see why: The Jays could use some infield insurance in case Bo Bichette walks (and some outfield insurance as George Springer ages and Anthony Santander attempts to bounce back from a lost 2025), and Okamoto would seem to fit this lineup's "make tons of contact while still doing damage" ethos. Tucker and Bichette likely remain the priorities, but who knows, maybe there's enough money to do both?