Much remains unsettled about this MLB offseason, with several of the biggest free agents — Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez — as yet unsigned. That said, this holiday season could bring about significant movement. All it takes is one outfielder, or one infielder, or one star pitcher, to really set the market and send the dominoes cascading down.
Many of the most consequential moves to date have come as mild shocks. The Pittsburgh Pirates added Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn, two genuine impact bats! The Baltimore Orioles came out of left field to hand Pete Alonso $155 million. The Dodgers forked over $69 million to Edwin Díaz to land the best closer in the sport. Dylan Cease received a whopping $210 million from the reigning AL champs in Toronto. Whereas many teams of making moves, however, these "projected" contenders appear destined for an underwhelming winter.
San Francisco Giants
Are the San Francisco Giants actually contenders? President Buster Posey would sure like us to think so. The Giants have done an admirable job of hunting big game in recent years, adding the likes of Robbie Ray, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and, of course, Rafael Devers. San Francisco typically is present in the conversation around top free agents, but that hasn't really been the case this winter.
On Dec. 1, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reported that the Giants are "not inclined" to spend what it takes the sign Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai. It seems, from reporting around the team, that San Francisco will stick to the middle tier of free agency and perhaps explore the trade market. Stray links to Imai or Framber Valdez keep popping up, but the Giants aren't genuine favorites in either case. Bellinger, Tucker and the premier positional free agents just feel like pipe dreams.
Posey is a talented exec with a lot of corporate knowledge and charisma, but if San Francisco doesn't have the money — or more accurately, if ownership doesn't want to spend the money — there's not much he can do. And that is deeply unfortunate, because the Giants are in a huge financial market and there is more pressure than ever to keep up with the high-flying Dodgers. Or even to gain a little ground. The two-year signing of Adrian Houser could be a smart buy-low investment, but otherwise, it feels like the Giants are treading water. Not ideal.
Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians pulled off a historic comeback to steal the AL Central crown from Detroit last season. Then, in typical Guardians fashion, they flamed out in October. This Cleveland team plays a very specific and niche style of baseball. Their front office has a certain way of operating. These are things we know.
And yet, as small-market clubs around the league decide to get serious and compete on the open market, where are the reports tying Cleveland to needle-moving talent? The Guardians won 88 games and hosted a playoff series. This team has a respected manager in Stephen Vogt, a bonafide superstar in José Ramírez, an ace in Gavin Williams — the bones of a contender. But the Guardians lack the necessary slugging to actually compete on the postseason stage.
So many upgrades are available to Cleveland, and yet the odds of Eugenio Suárez, Brendan Donovan or Alex Bregman walking through that door are approximately zero. The Guardians want to build from within, and intellectually, it's understandable to keep spots open for Travis Bazzana, Angel Genao, Cooper Ingle and that loaded farm system. But how many championship teams are truly built from the ground up, with practically no meaningful investment in outside talent? Cleveland will be good next season, but when Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and other small-to-medium market teams are tossing money (or assets) around, the Guardians' standard grow-from-within strategy feels even cheaper than usual.
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers spent last offseason projecting real interest in Alex Bregman. Those efforts ultimately fell short, but the All-Star third baseman wound up back on the market this winter. As of now, the Tigers aren't even considered a remote possibility. That speaks to a larger trend with Scott Harris and the Detroit front office. He's good at this job, to be clear, and the Tigers are still a very real threat in the American League. When the time comes to abandon reason and push one's chips in, however, the best teams — the most consistent contenders — do so. Detroit operates in constant fear of negative consequence.
Detroit has a fairly deep and flexible lineup, but the Tigers tend to deploy an incongruent blend of high-power, high-strikeout bats (Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson) and high-contact, low-power bats (Zach McKinstry, Gleyber Torres). They don't have one or two guys who hit for contact and power in equal measure — those floor-raising, star-level bats that can keep an offense afloat even when the pressure ramps up in October. The Tigers just don't have a dude on offense, and there's zero indication that Harris is willing to sign (or trade for) a dude.
The Tigers should be all over the Ketel Marte sweepstakes. They should be going hard after Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman. But instead, Detroit has added a handful of bullpen arms while entertaining trade overtures for Tarik Skubal, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young. Detroit probably keeps Skubal at the end of the day, but the odds of re-signing him for 2027 and beyond are zilch. If the Tigers trade him, it tanks their ability to contend. If the Tigers keep him, it just starts a ticking clock. It's a lose-lose situation, made worse by Detroit's refusal to build upon its current offensive foundation.
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs lost Brad Keller to Philadelphia and have so far focused on the mid-tier reliever market, with Phil Maton their biggest catch to date. Signing Tyler Austin, a former top Yankees prospect, out of Japan's NPB was a savvy move, but not one that guarantees a high-level return. He figures mostly to back up Michael Busch and take on a few DH reps, depending on how things pan out.
The elephant in the room, of course, is Kyle Tucker. The Cubs are a total afterthought in his free agent sweepstakes, with Toronto, Los Angeles and maaaaybe a New York team or two solidly in the mix. Losing Tucker alone is enough to push this Cubs offseason into the negative. Chicago has been connected to Alex Bregman, but history tells us that any such pursuit will end in heartbreak. Boston, Toronto or even Philadelphia all feel like more realistic landing spots for Bregman at this point, based on spending power and reputation.
Chicago simply does not have the in-house firepower to compensate for Tucker's departure — and this comes a year after trading an All-Star third baseman in Isaac Paredes and a top prospect in Cam Smith. If they sign Bregman, it's still a step back. The Cubs emptied the clip for a year of Tucker and couldn't get past the first round in October.
Even their rotation needs are unresolved, although the potential to sign either Imai or Valdez at least gives Cubs fans some measure of hope to drown out the imminent despair. Side note: if the Cubs dump Nico Hoerner, prepare for revolution of the north side of Chicago. I'll man the front lines.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are stuck between a rock and a hard place, as an ongoing ownership dispute continues to tie one hand behind AJ Preller's back. There isn't a more dependable GM in MLB when it comes to going all-out in an unexpected and creative way, and the Padres do deserve credit for re-signing Michael King to a three-year, $75 million contract — an outcome few saw coming.
That said, if King is the big accomplishment of San Diego's offseason, the Padres are worse off. Cease already left for a king's ransom in Toronto. O'Hearn just inked a very affordable two-year deal in Pittsburgh. Given the Padres' need at first base, not re-signing the latter for a modest $29 million offer feels like a red flag. Reliever Robert Suárez left for Atlanta. That is what it is, but to lose Suárez and then float Mason Miller in trade rumors? That's bad news. Even the insinuation that San Diego might deal Miller, after emptying out the top of its farm system to land him at the deadline, is proof of desperation.
Trading Miller wouldn't save the Padres money in any significant way, and he's under club control for years to come, so these rumors seem to indicate that Preller is under pressure to A) deliver an unexpected and improbable upgrade, using Miller as a step ladder to climb the MLB star hierarchy, or B) to restock the pipeline and help San Diego become younger and more flexible, even if Preller's expiring contract means he might not be around the reap the benefits of such a move.
Both Miller and Nick Pivetta, San Diego's No. 1 starter, have been linked to the Mets. Even if both stick around — and I'd bet on that outcome — it feels like San Diego is either running it back at a slight deficit, or trading off key pieces to create depth and future flexibility, creating a major talent deficit. Either outcome is grave in nature for a team that gambled a large chunk of its future at the 2025 trade deadline, only to flame out in the first round against the Cubs, of all teams.