Mets fans shouldn't expect a Phillies-like turnaround after Carlos Mendoza firing

At long last, the New York Mets have relieved manager Carlos Mendoza of his duties on Friday, naming Andy Green as the interim skipper. This move is a long time coming for Mets fans, as the team has been one of the worst in the majors, really, since last July. While Mendoza isn't to blame for all of that, someone needed to take the fall for what's taken place, and after an embarrassing four-game sweep at home against the Cubs in which the Mets made six errors in a game and two in the next, it's hard to argue against this move. It's a results-based business, at the end of the day, and Mendoza has lacked them for a couple of years now.

Mendoza's firing has led to some Mets fans gaining a semblance of hope that perhaps the team can dig out of a massive hole and climb into the playoff race, much like the Philadelphia Phillies did after firing Rob Thomson earlier this season. As much as I, a Mets fan, would love to see that happen, it's hard to envision such a thing coming to fruition.

Mets waited too long to fire Carlos Mendoza while Phillies were aggressive

What's ironic about this is that both the Mets and the Phillies began their seasons at 9-19. The Phillies fired Thomson after falling to 9-19, and have gone 36-17 since. After dropping their sixth in a row, the Mets fell to 34-47 on the year, meaning they've gone just 25-28 since. The Phillies have gone from laughing stock to having sole possession of the first Wild Card spot in the NL (and within just 4.0 games of the first-place Braves in the NL East), while the Mets have gone from laughing stock to... laughing stock.

Ultimately, the Phillies made their move early, giving the team a chance to turn its season around. To their credit, they've done that and then some. The Mets, on the other hand, waited until game 81 of the season to fire Mendoza, and while sure, there are still another 81 games to be played, they've dug a massive hole.

The Mets are 15.0 games out of first place in the NL East and 9.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, with every NL team other than the Rockies and Giants ahead of them. Not only do the Mets have a ton of ground to make up, but they'll have to leapfrog seven other teams just to squeak into the third playoff spot. FanGraphs has the Mets' postseason odds at 5.4 percent, and even that feels high.

Mets roster isn't good enough to go on a prolonged run

We've seen flurries of the Mets playing well this season, but every time they show signs of life and take a step forward, they take two steps back. Ultimately, that comes down to the team not being good enough.

The Mets' 4.90 starting pitching ERA is the third-worst in the majors this season, and only seems to be getting worse by the day. The Phillies, on the other hand, have gotten ridiculous starting pitching since firing Thomson, anchoring their run. It's really hard to win without consistent starting pitching. The Mets' offense has been one of the league's worst all year, while the Phillies, thanks largely to Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, have been hitting better since firing Thomson (even if they still have work to do in that department). It's really hard to win when you're consistently scoring three runs or fewer.

The Mets' bullpen is quite good, but they rarely ever have late leads to protect, and other than that bullpen, there just isn't much to like.

Phillies made their change at the perfect time

Everything about the Thomson decision was timed perfectly from Philadelphia's perspective. They did it early enough for the team to have time to rally, and they did it ahead of a soft part of their schedule. The Phillies took advantage of their light schedule with the momentum that came with making a managerial change, and haven't looked back since.

On the flip side, the Mets are about to play the red-hot Phillies this weekend, and have the league's second-toughest remaining schedule per Tankathon. Even if the Mets play better, the lack of time to get their season back on track, paired with the tough schedule, makes it even harder to believe that a magical run is in store.

Managerial firings are not a foolproof solution

The Phillies have turned their season around since firing Thomson, but the Red Sox fired Alex Cora while sitting at 11-17. They've gone just 22-29 since, playing worse baseball without Cora than they were with him. This comes down to the Phillies players playing better, while Boston simply hasn't seen that under Chad Tracy.

There's a good chance that the Mets will follow in the Red Sox's footsteps. While I do believe a change was warranted, again, Mendoza is not responsible for all that's transpired. Sure, some of the defensive sloppiness can be traced back to him, and he's made some questionable decisions with his lineups and bullpen management, but the underlying issues of this season can be traced back to Stearns and the players more than Mendoza. Those same players and executive will be with the team for the foreseeable future. Is changing the manager really enough?

This means that while there might be a new voice, it's on Stearns to put the right team together, and it's on the players to elevate their games. Firing the manager won't just automatically win the team games. The move had to be made, but that does not mean the season is saved by any means.

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