MLB magic numbers and playoff picture in the season's final week

And just like that, there's only one week left in the MLB regular season. The vibes are high for less than half the league, as teams like the Dodgers, Braves and Brewers have all clinched their respective divisions. Meanwhile, the AL and NL Wild Card standings are finally coming to a head. In the AL, the Red Sox and Yankees have both clinched, while the White Sox fall from the grace has forced them into the third and final spot. In the NL, the Cubs, Padres and Phillies will more than likely be the three Wild Card teams, but homefield advantage is very much up in the air.

At this point in the season, magic numbers are as relevant as ever. The same can be said of elimination numbers, which reveal when a team can officially be ruled out as a postseason contender. The easiest way to keep tabs on how close teams are to clinching is by looking at magic numbers. The formula to calculate a magic number is as follows, per MLB.com:

• Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)

American League standings and playoff picture

As of Sept. 21, 2026, the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees have clinched a playoff berth. The White Sox and Guardians are separated by just one game in the AL Central, with Cleveland recently taking command in that division thanks to a series victory over the south siders. The Rangers shocked Houston over the weekend to secure first place in the AL West as well. The loser of that division is likely to miss the postseason altogether.

The jokes write themselves about the state of the American League this season, which of course means an AL team will win the World Series. I don't make the rules.

If the regular season ended today, here's a look at what the AL Wild Card round matchups would look like.

• Bye: (1) Tampa Bay Rays
• Bye: (2) Cleveland Guardians
• (3) Texas Rangers vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
• (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox

National League standings and playoff picture

The Brewers, Dodgers and Braves have been in a class of their own for much of this season atop the National League. Milwaukee, having already set a franchise record for wins, appears most likely to finish atop the NL and thus clinch homefield throughout the National League postseason.

The real drama starts in the NL Wild Card race. Depending on how things shake out over the season's final week, one of the Cubs, Phillies or Padres will have homefield for the Wild Card round, while the other two are forced on the road, with the odd team out traveling to Atlanta. All of this is bad news for the Diamondbacks, which technically aren't eliminated but are closing in on a brutal ending to a once-promising season.

If the regular season ended today, here’s a look at what the NL Wild Card round matchups would look like.

• Bye: (1) Milwaukee Brewers
• Bye: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
• (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) Philadelphia Phillies
• (4) Chicago Cubs vs. (5) San Diego Padres

MLB magic numbers: Which AL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?

The AL East is in a league of its own within the American League, if that makes any sense. The Rays, Yankees and Red Sox are far and away the best teams record-wise in the AL, while the Blue Jays have an outside chance to become the fourth AL East team to make the postseason thanks to the third AL Wild Card spot. That's utter dominance. The AL Central and AL West could be won by teams under .500, meanwhile.

MLB magic numbers: Which NL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?

The Dodgers, Brewers and Braves have all clinched a playoff spot and their respective divisions, while the Phillies, Cubs and Padres are closing in on paydirt to begin the week. Arizona is the only NL team remaining that could disrupt the NL Wild Card standings, as the Pirates and Cardinals were eliminated last week.

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