MLB panic meter: Checking in on the Cubs, Blue Jays and more at the one-month mark

We are one month into the MLB season. Small sample sizes are becoming larger and larger. At a certain point, the panic sets in for real — at least for some alleged contenders who can't seem to find their stride.

Let's dive into a handful of early MLB disappointments and determine which fanbases ought to sound the alarms, and which can keep the faith.

New York Mets — 10

An 12-game skid and a last-place record is not what Mets fans expected from the second-most expensive roster in MLB. Steve Cohen has proven he's willing to spend, but it's unclear if David Stearns is the right GM for their carte blanche approach. Or maybe the Mets are just cursed. Either way, this is the worst imaginable start to the campaign.

The Mets are 23rd in batting average and 27th in home runs. Juan Soto is finally back from the IL, but Bo Bichette and Francisco Lindor are shells of themselves right now. Top prospect Carson Benge looks overwhelmed under the lights. Beyond Francisco Álvarez, you'd be hard-pressed to find a consistent source of offense. Luis Robert Jr. looks solid; the MJ Melendez breakout is fun, but probably not sustainable.

If Freddy Peralta was matching last season's Cy Young candidacy, and if Kodai Senga wasn't getting shelled every fifth game, it'd be easier to drum up confidence. But that is not the reality for Mets fans. It won't stay this bad forever, but the track record for teams starting in the hole New York finds itself in is... not great.

Boston Red Sox — 9

Boston is tied for last place in what's shaping up to be the American League's most competitive division. The overall lack of success in the AL so far has prevented a full-on panic in Beantown, but it's hard to find a ton of silver linings with this team.

Here's what we know. Garrett Crochet probably won't finish the season with a 7.88 ERA. That said, his standard fastball cocktail — normally an unhittable blend of cutters, sinkers and four-seamers — is getting absolutely hammered. Crochet's velo is down. His command has slipped. There is genuine concern around Boston's ace. Connelly Early and Ranger Suárez can only do so much heavy-lifting, especially with Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo subject to early IL stints.

The lineup is even more troubling. Trevor Story has come crashing back to earth after his 2025 renaissance. Jarren Duran survived trade rumors, only to get benched against a righty on Tuesday. He looks completely out of it. Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida provide reason for optimism, but Boston — tied for an MLB-worst 13 home runs as a team — might not have the star-power to compete in a crowded division.

Philadelphia Phillies — 7

The Phillies have the worst run differential in baseball and are stuck in what feels like an insurmountable rut to begin the season. The Mets' struggles have overshadowed Philadelphia a bit, but there's an argument that Philly has been the worse team — especially relative to expectations. The back-to-back NL East champs already feel out of that particular race.

If there's a source of optimism, it's in the fact that Jesús Luzardo (7.94 ERA and 3.59 xERA) and Philly's pitchers have been the victim of impossibly bad batted-ball luck so far. The Phillies' shoddy defense is partially responsible, but Cris Sánchez is putting up Cy Young numbers, Luzardo's season will turn around, and Zack Wheeler is due back later this week. If the Phillies' rotation can stay healthy, their arms will keep them afloat.

More concerning is the Phillies' impotent lineup, which has especially struggled against left-handed pitching. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the only reliable sources of offense at the moment. Philly resorted to batting rookie Felix Reyes cleanup on Tuesday night, in his second Major League start. Desperation has set in. The bats will wake up eventually, on some level. But the Phillies are in a real pickle.

Houston Astros — 5

Yordan Álvarez is making an early MVP case with a 1.215 OPS and 241 OPS+. He has 10 home runs and 21 RBI, both tops in the American League. And yet, the Astros are dead last in the AL West, with a flood of injuries. Jeremy Peña, Hunter Brown and Tatsuya Imai are just a few of the many key Astros on the IL right now.

Houston missed the playoffs altogether in 2025. The Astros are an older team. Their World Series-caliber core has lost its luster. The scale of their injury woes is enough to get worried, especially for a team with (clearly) limited depth and a weaker farm system.

On a positive note, Houston's stars are still producing and Álvarez might just be special enough to lift the Astros out of this hole. The general weakness of their division also gives Houston an easier path back to contention compared to, say, Boston.

Toronto Blue Jays — 4

Toronto should probably panic more than this, especially given the perceived strength of the AL East. That said, the Blue Jays were in the World Series a few months ago. We know this team's offensive process. And we know, when healthy, things ought to look much better.

Injuries have been a real scourge for the Jays so far. Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber are slogging through rehab assignments, while Cody Ponce in done for the year with a torn ACL. So much for Toronto's revamped rotation. On the lineup front, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Addison Barger — all essential to last year's offensive buzzsaw — are out of commission.

The Jays' (available) core bats are still hitting reasonably well. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease are both shoving absolute gas right now. Once Toronto can reinforce the rotation, even a little bit, the tide should turn. That said, the worst run differential in the AL East is not where Toronto wanted to be a month into the season.

Seattle Mariners — 3

Seattle has a positive point differential and occupies arguably the weakest division in MLB, so there's reason for optimism here. The start was not pretty, but Cal Raleigh (.538 OPS) probably isn't a negative-value hitter after his second-place MVP campaign a year ago. That will change — as will the early-season struggles of Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor and other mission-critical Mariners.

Assuming the M's can start generating more offense, their arms should keep Seattle competitive all season long. The Mariners have three starters with a sub-3.00 ERA so far, with Logan Gilbert (xERA 3.06) destined to shed his current pitching slump. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts. Luis Castillo is on the edge of a worryingly steep cliff, but he's still better than your average fifth starter.

Seattle just has too much talent, too well-rounded a roster, to not compete for the AL West crown this season. The Mariners were the preseason AL pennant favorites for a reason.

Chicago Cubs — 1

Chicago was slow out of the gate, but Craig Counsell's team has diligently put any premature panic to bed. The Cubs are the real deal, folks. Despite injuries, the pitching staff has come through, with Colin Rea and Javier Assad providing a testament to the North Siders' depth on the mound.

Meanwhile, Moisés Ballesteros and Nico Hoerner are early candidates for Rookie of the Year and MVP, respectively. Hoerner almost certainly won't actually win MVP, but he's so steady in the leadoff spot — so dependable in every aspect of the game, really. Ballesteros is a huge power source in the heart of the order. Once Alex Bregman, Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki shake the rust off their bats, Chicago is built to sustain winning.

The NL Central is a total mess right now, but the Cubs are above .500 with by far the best run differential in the division. It's easy to fade the Cubs as potential division champs — it always seems to go Milwaukee's way — but Chicago is, on paper, a contender.

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