One offseason regret already haunting each NL Central team

The NL Central is the most competitive division in MLB out of the gate, with all five teams sitting .500 or above. It really feels like anybody's race at the moment. Chicago and Milwaukee are the established heavyweights, but Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are equipped with the lights-out pitching necessary to stack wins in the regular season. Even the Cardinals feel like a real-deal threat with Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt on the awards path.

On the other hand, such a crowded field shines a spotlight on what each team didn't do in the offseason. Here are the past mistakes that could define the NL Central in 2026:

Chicago Cubs: Signing Alex Bregman

With all due respect to Alex Bregman — and he has earned a ton of respect over the years — Chicago's decision to sign him to a five-year, $175 million contract ahead of his age-32 season was a predictable misstep. Bregman is known as a great teammate and the ultimate winner, but last season in Boston was a mixed bag, to say the least. The signs of imminent decline were there.

We can't write the obituary less than 20 games into the season, of course. Bregman may very well turn it around and put together a solid season. That said, given the depth of their farm system and the continued production from Matt Shaw, a former top prospect who ended 2025 on a heater, it's fair to wonder if Bregman was the right allocation of Chicago's typically restricted resources.

Jed Hoyer typically picks his spots carefully in free agency. He wouldn't come close to paying up for Kyle Tucker. The Cubs were never going to keep him around. But $35 million annually to Bregman feels destined to become a sunk cost. He's limping out of the gate with a .659 OPS in the heart of the Cubs' order. Add that next to the relative sunk cost of Dansby Swanson's contract at shortstop, and Chicago could be locked in to diminishing returns in the infield for the foreseeable future.

St. Louis Cardinals: Signing Dustin May

The Cardinals more or less nailed their first offseason under Chaim Bloom's leadership. They traded Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Sonny Gray for massive hauls, they didn't play games with JJ Wetherholt's service time, and perhaps most importantly, they didn't trade Jordan Walker despite mounting pressure to do so. Now Walker is enjoying a breakthrough campaign. He's playing like an MVP candidate and the Cardinals, against all odds, are plucky and competitive.

If there was a misstep, however, it was St. Louis' only real expense of note in free agency: a one-year, $12.5 million contract for Dustin May. The 28-year-old righty has never really found his footing in the Majors. He posted a 4.96 ERA across 25 appearances (23 starts) between Los Angeles and Boston in 2025. A pleasantly surprising spring has since given way to an abysmal start to the regular season; May has a 6.98 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through four starts.

He somehow has the best fWAR (0.3) of any Cardinals starter to date, but that's more an indictment of St. Louis' broader pitching apparatus than an endorsement of May's contributions. We all kind of knew this would go poorly. For a team meant to be focusing on the future, a one-year deal for May — effectively a stopgap blocking potential internal promotions — never felt like the right move. And it was not.

Milwaukee Brewers: Trading Freddy Peralta

The Brewers stayed true to form this offseason, making confusing but ultimately impactful trades on the margins (Caleb Durbin to Boston) and cashing in on a star right before he gets the bag in free agency (Freddy Peralta). Acquiring Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, two top-100 prospects, from the Mets served as a nice haul. Especially when Peralta was basically on a ticking clock in Milwaukee. Historically, the Brewers are very much disinclined to entertain long-term extensions, except in extraordinary circumstances (see: Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio).

That said, for as great as Milwaukee is with internal development, even the NL Central's chief practioners of dark magic need to take a financial risk every now and then. And while Sproat and Williams should both contribute amply over time, the Brewers' first-place streak is at risk this season. We know the limitations of their lineup, especially with Yelich and Chourio both relegated to the IL early on.

The solution to middling, contact-driven offense is an elite pitching staff. Milwaukee appears to have found a solid rotational headliner in Jacob Misiorowski, but Chad Patrick and Kyle Harrison will probably regress over time. Brandon Woodruff is off to a rocky start, too, even if he has fallen victim to bad luck. Brandon Sproat, meanwhile, looks a tad unprepared for the Major League stage. Peralta would've given the Brewers two bonafide aces between him and The Miz, with an experienced workhorse to lead what is still, on paper, a top NL contender. Perhaps one more year with Peralta would've been worth it, even if he walked scot-free next winter.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Not paying up for Kyle Schwarber

The Pirates finally did the thing and added real bats in the offseason. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn have both proven essential in the heart of the order. Factor in an Oneil Cruz breakout and the looming explosion we're destined to see from Konnor Griffin, and it feels like the Pirates finally have the offensive firepower to support a lights-out rotation.

That said, the Marcell Ozuna signing is one that has aged poorly. It's still early, but the veteran DH appears lost at the plate. He has a .413 OPS and 17 OPS+ with an abysmal -0.6 fWAR. He's a black hole in the cleanup spot and a real candidate to ride the bench sooner than later. It is therefore hard not to think about Pittsburgh's near-miss in the Kyle Schwarber sweepstakes. Pittsburgh reportedly bid four years and $125 million, which came up just shy of his ultimate five-year, $150 million deal in Philadelphia.

We know the Pirates operate with certain financial restrictions, but Bob Nutting is a wealthy man and there's no doubt that Pittsburgh could have outbid the Phillies. It was a matter of gumption, of want-to. If the Pirates had gone five years and $160 million, for example, suddenly this lineup stacks up with anybody in the National League. Schwarber is right back to his old tricks, with six homers and a .935 OPS. It sure would be nice if those moonshots were occurring against the backdrop of the Allegheny River. Alas... we will never know what the Schwarber-led Pirates are capable of.

Cincinnati Reds: Also not paying up for Kyle Schwarber

Not to double up, but the Reds were also in the running for Kyle Schwarber, with a reported final offer of five years and $125 million. Cincinnati is even more restricted in its spending than Pittsburgh, but Schwarber is a hometown kid. He grew up attending Reds games. We have to believe he would've picked Cincy over Philly for the right price.,

And why didn't the Reds outbid Philadelphia, except for self-imposed cheapness? We know the Reds were willing to spend more on Schwarber than anybody else for the inherent box office draw his massive power provides. The Reds ultimately settled on Eugenio Suárez as their major offseason addition of choice. Suárez was a solid buy-low option, but he's far too volatile to truly elevate what is already an inconsistent Reds lineup.

Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are early frontrunners for MVP and Rookie of the Year, respectively, but the Reds are otherwise starved for offense at the moment. That's a bummer considering how dominant the rotation looks, even with Hunter Greene on the IL. Cincy sits in first place, with a real chance to win the division. Schwarber may have put them over the top.

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