The MLB offseason is in full swing now, but the impending Dec. 1 lockout will heavily influence front office decision-making across the league. Is it better to wait and see what, if any, new financial restrictions are imposed? Or is it better to strike early, before such limitations take effect? Those questions will define the next couple months.
For what it's worth, the MLB rumor mill is already churning. Here's the latest buzz, from a potential Ketel Marte trade to Tarik Skubal's price tag and a top international free agent.
Diamondbacks could 'shake the team up' with Ketel Marte trade
The Arizona Diamondbacks plan to aggressively pursue change before the Dec. 1 lockout, per GM Mike Hazen.
"No one knows what’s going to happen once we get to December and beyond, but I’d like to be aggressive at least in exploring what the trade market could look like for us,” Hazen told The Arizona Republic. “We’ll see how free agents behave once we start having conversations with agents. We’ll see where that goes.”
When asked specifically about Marte, Hazen's reponse did nothing to dissuade speculation. If anything, he fanned the flames.
"I think we need to look at some ways to shake the team up a little bit,” he told The Republic. “I think we’ve had this team together for a long time. We’ve had some success, but we’re going to find ways to make some changes in some cases. I don’t know where that’s going to take us."
Marte's name has been involved in trade rumors for a couple years now. He has frequently rankled teammates, coaches and fans alike. The veteran second baseman spent multiple games away from the team for vague and unconvincing reasons this past season. His production also tailed off, as Marte posted his lowest OPS (.748) since 2020.
Age (33) and contract (five more years, $87.5 million) complicate the market for Marte, not to mention the red flags tied to his off-field conduct. He's still in the upper echelon at his position, however. Marte's refined hit tool was undersold by poor luck last season. Very few players can blend contact and power as fruitfully as Marte, plus he's still an above-average defender at second base. There will be teams interested — and perhaps Marte would like a change of scenery, too.
Tarik Skubal probably won't get $400 million in free agency
Tarik Skubal is the unambiguous headliner for this winter's free agent class. There's a good chance he signs before the lockout, too, just to limit the potential risk associated with a long layoff and CBA changes. Oh, and there will be a line around the block to sign him. Or more realistically, three or four teams with ambitious ownership groups will throw the kitchen sink at baseball's top ace.
While some believe Skubal could net $400 million-plus on the open market, an anonymous MLB executive threw cold water on the idea, per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez:
"The price will be huge, but I don't think he's touching 400 [million]."
Skubal's agent, Scott Boras, is expected to aim for Yoshinobu Yamamoto's MLB-record $325 million contract, according to ESPN. The 30-year-old Skubal won't get 12 years like Yamamoto did, but there's a chance he sets a new AAV record for a pitcher, or close to it. My personal prediction: nine years, $378 million.
The incumbent Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites, and it sounds like Skubal wants to return to L.A. The New York Mets are the clear next team up, however. It could become a two-horse race, with ESPN noting that MLB agents and execs are "split" on whether a potential salary cap will embolden high rollers like L.A. and New York — or cause them to proceed with more caution.
Top international pitcher Kaima Taira will be posted
The Seibu Lions of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball will allow right-handed pitcher Kaima Taira to negotiate with MLB clubs through the international posting system, per Yahoo Japan (h/t MLB Trade Rumors). Once Taira is officially posted, he will have 45 days to negotiate a contract Stateside. Given the uncertainty of the impending lockout on Dec. 1, odds are Taira will rush to get a contract done in November.
Taira will test MLB front offices' ability to think outside the box. He has oscillated between starting and bullpen duties in Japan, although he was a very effective member of Seibu's rotation in 2026. Taira posted a 1.36 ERA against NPB competition, with 141 strikeouts in 146.0 innings. It's rare to find pitchers with Taira's build — he's 5-foot-8, 209 pounds — but he can touch triple digits on the radar gun, with an eight-pitch mix besides.
It's rare for pitchers so young and so polished to enter the league. The adjustment curve from NPB to MLB can be steep — just ask Tatsuya Imai, who was stuck in a similar limbo between starter and reliever prior to his MLB arrival. That said, Taira has the stuff to outperform the limitations typically imposed on smaller, stouter pitchers of his ilk.
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