The National League Rookie of the Year race might be the most compelling of MLB's entire awards season this year, with three legitimate candidates to walk away with the award despite there only being one more month of action. And that final three doesn't even include the likes of Nolan McLean, TJ Rumfield and Bryce Eldridge, all of whom have had fantastic seasons.
It can be argued that JJ Wetherholt, Sal Stewart and Carson Benge should all be considered for this prestigious award, and while there can only be one winner, we're going to make the case for all three of these budding stars.
The case for JJ Wetherholt to win NL Rookie of the Year
- The case: Leads all NL Rookies in fWAR by far, ridiculous defensive metrics
JJ Wetherholt has been the favorite to win the award virtually all season long, and that could well be the case right now, as he's had an outstanding rookie year. He's had a slightly above-average offensive season, launching 16 home runs, posting a .348 on-base percentage and a 106 OPS+, but where Wetherholt really shines is in the areas people don't pay attention to.
For example, he ranks in the 95th percentile in base running value per Baseball Savant, and he leads all MLB second basemen with 24 Outs Above Average. The next-best qualified second basemen in that metric are Luis Arraez and Brice Turang, both of whom have 11 OAA. By that metric, Wetherholt has been the most valuable defensive player in the sport not named Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong — which is absurd, especially for a rookie.
Wetherholt's elite defense up the middle paired with high-end base-running and an above-average bat explains why he has 4.4 fWAR, the most by far among NL rookies (Benge ranks second with 2.9). Wetherholt ranks seventh among all qualified position players in fWAR, ahead of the likes of James Wood, Corbin Carroll and Shohei Ohtani (the hitter). Is that not ROY-worthy?
The case for Sal Stewart to win NL Rookie of the Year
- The case: Leads all NL rookies by a wide margin in home runs, RBI
Wetherholt's case is mostly defense-driven, while Sal Stewart's case is driven by his offense and some more traditional numbers. Stewart has been a run-producing machine for the Cincinnati Reds, slashing .259/.334/.476 with 27 home runs and 94 RBI. That latter mark leads the Majors, and there's a good chance he'll finish the year with far more than 30 home runs. In most years, players who put up these stats would win Rookie of the Year with ease.
The knock on Stewart, though, is that he doesn't provide much value beyond his run production. He doesn't get on base at an elite clip, he doesn't run the bases particularly well and while he has seen time at three different infield positions this season, his defense isn't anything to write home about.
Stewart being more of a one-dimensional player is why he's been worth just 2.1 fWAR — which isn't bad, but is less than half that of Wetherholt. Still, Stewart having 11 more home runs and 34 more RBI than any other NL rookie cannot be overlooked.
The case for Carson Benge to win NL Rookie of the Year
- The case: Perhaps the best all-around player in this race
If you value defense above all else, Wetherholt is going to be your pick. If you value offense above all else, Stewart is your man. Carson Benge has not been as good defensively as Wetherholt and he has not been as good offensively as Stewart, but he's just been rock-solid all around.
Defensively, Benge makes the highlight reel with his arm. Just this week, he threw out two runners at the plate in one inning, helping the New York Mets earn a win over the Padres. He has nine outfield assists already this season, ranking fourth in the Majors. Offensively, while he got off to a slow start, he has hit .293 with an .807 OPS since May 1.
To put it simply, Benge does everything well. He's hitting .272 this year, he's stolen 18 bases, he's hit 15 home runs and he's played all three outfield positions well while showing off one of the strongest arms in the sport. He's better offensively than Wetherholt and better defensively than Stewart.
Why J.J. Wetherholt should still be the NL Rookie of the Year favorite
This is a very close race, and I wouldn't be mad at any of these three players walking home with the award. But ultimately, there's a reason why Wetherholt's WAR is so much higher than Benge's and Stewarts': He's simply been a better player.
Player | wRC+ | OAA | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
JJ Wetherholt | 107 | 22 | 4.4 |
Carson Benge | 112 | 0 | 2.9 |
Sal Stewart | 114 | 1 | 2.1 |
Stewart's power outclasses that of Wetherholt and Benge. The fact that he might lead the Majors in RBI as a rookie is beyond impressive. With that being said, Stewart plays in a very hitter-friendly park, and his overall wRC+ output isn't much better than his peers as a result. That, paired with his minimal value elsewhere, makes it hard to pick him when Wetherholt has had the year he's had.
As for Benge, his 127 wRC+ since May 1 leads Stewart and Wetherholt by a mile. He even has more fWAR (3.0) than Wetherholt and Stewart over that span as well. While he doesn't grade well in terms of OAA, his arm (99th percentile in arm value) is almost as valuable as Wetherholt's range has been. I'd argue Benge has been the best rookie in the NL for most of the year, but the problem is that the year includes April — when Benge was one of the worst players in the sport. That's why his overall numbers don't quite measure up to Wetherholt's.
At the end of the day, Wetherholt has provided roughly the same offensive output when looking at wRC+ compared to Stewart and Benge, while he's been the far more valuable defensive player and base-runner. The offense is what people look at first and foremost, but defense and base-running simply should not be discounted. His value has been evident nightly on a Cardinals team that has exceeded expectations this season.
Ridiculous offensive finishes from Benge or Stewart could change the equation some, or perhaps Wetherholt will play his way out of the race with a rough offensive September, but as long as the offense is comparable between this trio, the player who has been far better in other areas should win the award.
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