For the first time in his relatively young career, Paul Skenes is facing criticism. The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander has failed to meet the lofty — some might say unreasonable — standards during his first two seasons. He is hearing about it from the media and fans.
Skenes will take a 9-11 record and 3.88 ERA through 25 starts into his start against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday in the finale of a three-game series at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
This season has been nothing like the last two years when Skenes was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2024 and the NL Cy Young Award winner in 2025. He was 21-13 with a remarkable 1.96 ERA in 55 starts over those two seasons.
It was unrealistic to think that Skenes would sustain a sub-2.00 ERA forever. However, it is difficult to understand why his ERA is up nearly two full runs this season, and his velocity has dipped, especially when Skenes says he is healthy and believes, for the most part, that he has pitched well.
Yet Skenes’ dropoff has been so significant that it has led fans to question whether he is even the ace of the Pirates’ pitching staff anymore. Braxton Ashcraft is now the Pirates’ No. 1 starter in many people’s eyes, as he is 12-5 with a 3.88 ERA in 25 outings.
Yet if you look under the hood — as analytics-driven general managers love to say these days — the numbers show that Skenes is still the Pirates’ top starter despite his record. Here is how the Pirates’ starting pitchers rank.
1. Paul Skenes
Skenes has rarely looked like himself since pitching eight shutout innings and allowing just two hits in back-to-back starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 6 and Colorado Rockies on May 12. In his ensuing 16 starts, Skenes is 3-9 with a 5.00 ERA.
Though Skenes gave up two runs in five innings in his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins, he was removed from the game after just 65 pitches. Manager Don Kelly said a drop in velocity played a role in Skenes’ early departure, but there were no injury concerns.
Yet some of Skenes’ underlying numbers look better than the surface. Skenes’ 2.99 FIP indicates that he had his share of bad luck, especially since his 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and 87.7-mph exit velocity are in line with his career numbers.
2. Braxton Ashcraft
Ashcraft’s 3.57 FIP also shows that luck hasn’t always been on his side, though not to the extent of Skenes. However, Ashcraft's 9.9 K/9 and 89.6 average exit velocity both trail Skenes’ marks.
However, the gap between Skenes and Ashcraft is narrowing. Ashcraft showed how special he can be when he pitched a complete-game three-hitter to beat the Marlins on Thursday while allowing only one run and one walk. He struck out 10 but still needed just 85 pitches.
3. Bubba Chandler
The highly touted rookie is pitching much better following a rocky start to the season. Chandler won his third straight Friday night when he held the Red Sox to two runs over five innings. Chandler is 6-8 with a 4.23 ERA in 24 starts overall, but 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his last six turns through the rotation.
Chandler’s 4.08 FIP is in line with his ERA, but his 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings are a little lower than what was expected coming into the season.
4. Jared Jones
The fiery Jones has had ups and downs this year after missing last season while recovering from internal brace elbow surgery, as he is 2-3 with a 5.03 ERA in 13 starts. He has lost his last three starts, though, while getting tagged for 14 runs in 13 innings for a 9.69 ERA.
However, Jones’ 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 88.7 average exit velocity are impressive for a pitcher coming off surgery, and his 4.15 FIP suggests he has been a little unlucky.
5. Carmen Mlodzinski
Mlodzinski is getting his second opportunity to be in the rotation this season after Mitch Keller sustained a season-ending shoulder injury earlier this month. Mlodzinski has been rocked for nine runs in 5 1/3 innings in two starts since replacing Keller.
There is no reason to delve into advanced metrics. Mlodzinski has a 4.94 ERA in 28 career starts and a 2.55 ERA in 108 relief appearances. Rather than appeasing Mlodzinski’s desire to start, the Pirates should make him a full-time reliever.
Add us as a preferred source on Google