The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres both clinched playoff spots on Thursday, but Philadelphia Phillies fans are waiting to join in on the celebration. Back-to-back losses against the Milwaukee Brewers, paired with wins by the Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks, have the Phillies still waiting for their elusive clinching celebration.
It's gotten to a point where Phillies fans have begun panicking, with missing the playoffs on their minds. As crazy as that might be, given their magic number, here's why they might be justified.
Phillies magic number: Philadelphia still in drivers seat but with a caveat
Per MLB.com, the formula to determine a magic number is such: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). For our purposes, the formula would be 4 - (74-72). Four minus two is two, and since the Arizona Diamondbacks own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, that magic number is two.
This means that any combination of two Phillies wins OR two Arizona Diamondbacks losses would guarantee the Phillies a spot in the postseason and eliminate the D-Backs from contention. In theory, the Phillies could get in as soon as Friday, with a win AND an Arizona loss. Given that, the Phillies are still very much in control of their own destiny and shouldn't be panicking.
Still, the longer the Phillies prolong their celebration, the harder it is to believe it'll happen at all. The path to the Phillies achieving their goal is getting more and more uncomfortable by the day.
Why Phillies' road to playoffs is tougher than you might think
First and foremost, the Phillies are set to finish out their regular season with a three-game series against a 96-63 Tampa Bay Rays team that has the best record in the American League. Now, the Rays have already clinched the AL East and the No. 1 seed in the AL, so they have nothing to play for, but it's not like they'll just roll over and let the Phillies win games. In fact, with a week off looming, the Rays might be eager to get their key players as many reps as possible to help them avoid a long layoff.
Second, Luis Arraez sprained his ankle in Thursday's game against the Brewers, putting his availability in question. Now, Arraez has not been performing like his usual self since the Phillies acquired him, hitting just .278 with a .678 OPS after hitting .324 with an .801 OPS with the San Francisco Giants before the deadline, but he's still one of their most important hitters. Now, if Arraez were to miss time, an already top-heavy and streaky Phillies lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games would be that much harder to believe in.
The vibes are not good, and when vibes are not good, things can snowball.
Phillies and Diamondbacks have vibes heading in opposite directions
The Diamondbacks are getting hot at the right time. They just swept the Colorado Rockies, scoring 24 runs in the three games. Sure, winning games against a 100-loss Rockies team doesn't mean much, but they also took a couple of games from the Yankees right before heading to Denver. Arizona has won five games in a row with its season on the line. Meanwhile, the Phillies are heading in the opposite direction.
The Phillies have split or lost six straight series. They haven't won a series since taking two of three from the Diamondbacks, ironically enough, in their first series of the month. They haven't won a series at home since sweeping the Cardinals in late August. They haven't won a series at home against a team still alive in the postseason race since early June when they took two of three from the White Sox. They've lost five straight home series against teams alive in the postseason race since that series win over Chicago. Snapping that against the Rays would guarantee Philadelphia a playoff berth, but should we believe in that happening?
The Diamondbacks seem to be thriving while playing with house money, while the Phillies are crumbling under pressure, just lost a key bat and have a tough series to end their year.
Even if Phillies make the playoffs, it's time to be concerned
Again, even while things don't look great right now, the Diamondbacks would either need to go 3-0 while the Phillies go 1-2 this weekend or 2-1 while the Phillies go 0-3 for Philadelphia to miss the playoffs. Making it is still likely. With that being said, they've made the playoffs in each of the last four years. Their goal is to win the World Series for the first time since 2008.
Is this the team to do that? Injuries, with Arraez and Jesus Luzardo's availability in question, continue to pile up. The offense is hard to trust and has a history of coming up small in the postseason. The bullpen, beyond Jhoan Duran, is a mess. The rotation is the saving grace of the team, but if Zack Wheeler has to pitch on Sunday to get the Phillies to the playoffs (he's currently scheduled to do so if needed), do you trust Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter, both of whom would have to start, in a potential Wild Card Series?
The Phillies have the talent to prove doubters wrong, but it's on them to do so.
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