As recently as July 25, the San Diego Padres were below .500, a distant third place in the NL West and three games out of a Wild Card spot. Just a couple of months later, they're not only safely in the playoff bracket but also in line to host an opening-round series if the regular season ended today — and looking like a team that none of the National League giants will want to face in October.
With a INSERT RESULT HERE on Thursday, Padres fans can officially start looking ahead to the team's Wild Card series. We don't know who that series will be against, but we do know that San Diego has some tricky roster decisions to make in order to put themselves in position for a deep postseason run. Will AJ Preller really opt to keep three catchers, including top prospect Ethan Salas? What about potential returners like Miguel Andujar and Gavin Sheets? The Padres have tons of options at their disposal; here's how we think the team will look when it takes the field next Tuesday for Game 1.
Projected Padres playoff rotation
Role | Pitcher |
|---|---|
SP1 | Michael King |
SP2 | Nick Pivetta |
SP3 | Walker Buehler |
San Diego will only need three starters for its opening series, and while the team sent out significant prospect capital to acquire Robbie Ray and Casey Mize at the trade deadline, it's almost certain that those three will be Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Walker Buehler. King and Pivetta are obvious now that the latter is healthy. Buehler, meanwhile, has pitched in big games before, and he's simply been more reliable than either of the two new additions. (Though both of them should get a shot on the DS roster if the Padres make it that far.)
Projected bullpen
Role | Pitcher |
|---|---|
Closer | Mason Miller |
Setup | Adrian Morejon |
Setup | Jason Adam |
Middle Relief | Bradgley Rodriguez |
Middle Relief/Lefties | Yuki Matsui |
Middle Relief/Lefties | Kyle Hart |
Middle Relief | David Morgan |
Multi-inning | Randy Vasquez |
Multi-inning | Robbie Ray |
We have San Diego carrying 12 pitchers and 14 position players for such a short series. Miller, Morejon, Rodriguez and now Adam (fresh off the IL) are written in pen and the first names Craig Stammen will turn to in high-leverage spots. Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart have been indispensable against lefties, and since it feels a bit risky to only carry one multi-inning guy, I'm including both Ray and Randy Vasquez here while giving David Morgan the nod over Wandy Peralta for the final pure relief spot. This is one of the best units in baseball, and the Padres figure to go exactly as far as their 'pen carries them.
Projected Padres playoff lineup
Position | Player |
|---|---|
RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
DH | Dustin Harris |
3B | Manny Machado |
1B | Ty France |
CF | Jackson Merrill |
SS | Xander Bogaerts |
2B | Jake Cronenworth |
LF | Samad Taylor |
C | Luis Campusano |
Now things get interesting. Carrying 12 pitchers means we have room for 14 position players, but if both Andujar and Sheets are healthy — and all indications suggest they will be — then we've got more than 14 viable options here. Tatis Jr., Merrill, Machado, France, Bogaerts and Cronenworth are locked-in starters, as is Campusano in a game that King starts. That leaves two questions: DH and left field.
Harris has been so good against right-handed pitching of late that I don't see how the Padres could leave him out of the lineup, especially considering how much of a question mark Sheets remains as he returns from a foot injury. We'll give Samad Taylor the nod in left field for now, with the caveat that he'll likely form a platoon with somebody else still to come on this roster.
Projected bench
Position | Player |
|---|---|
C | Freddy Fermin |
C | Ethan Salas |
UTIL | Miguel Andujar |
DH/pinch-hitter | Gavin Sheets |
OF/pinch-runner | Jase Bowen |
All due respect to Sung-Min Song, his primary benefit is his defensive versatility, and that's simply not as useful in a three-game series. So we're swapping him out instead, in order to both carry Ethan Salas — San Diego has seen first-hand of late how nice keeping three catchers can be, especially if you want two of them in the lineup at the same time — and make room for Andujar and Sheets. Austin Hays is the other hard-luck loser here, but I'd rather have Andujar as a lefty-mashing bat, while Bowen figures to be safe thanks to his speed and defense off the bench.
