The MLB season ends on Sunday. While we have a good idea of which 12 teams will make the MLB Playoffs, both Wild Cards remain wide open, alongside the AL Central and AL West. These determinations are key this time of year, as it could decide homefield advantage in the Wild Card round and beyond. For AL Central contenders like the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, whichever team wins that division could even secure a first-round bye. On the other side of the bracket, all three NL Wild Card teams still have a chance to win the top spot, and homefield to start the playoffs.
But how will the final MLB standings shake out? Thanks to a mix of experts — both human and, well, not — we did our best to figure out just that.
Supercomputer prediction for the final MLB standings
AL East
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Rays | 98.3 | 63.7 | 100 |
Yankees | 93.0 | 69.0 | 100 |
Red Sox | 86.6 | 75.4 | 100 |
Blue Jays | 79.7 | 82.3 | 0.6 |
Orioles | 78.3 | 83.7 | 0.1 |
What the MLB experts think:
- Expert name: Chris Landers
- Division winner: Rays (already clinched)
- Wild Card pick: Yankees and Red Sox
- Where the computer is wrong: I don't really understand why the supercomputer has Boston with just the fifth-best odds in the AL to make it to the World Series. A first-round matchup with the Yankees is tough, especially in the Bronx, but this pitching staff is absolutely good enough to make a run — and I have a much easier time seeing them make it to the Fall Classic than, say, the White Sox.
AL Central
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Guardians | 84.5 | 77.5 | 99.3 |
White Sox | 84.0 | 78 | 99.7 |
Tigers | 76.1 | 85.9 | 0 |
Twins | 76.0 | 86 | 0 |
Royals | 69.4 | 92.6 | 0 |
What the MLB experts think:
- Expert name: Mark Powell
- Division winner: White Sox
- Wild Card pick: Guardians
- Where the computer is wrong: Picking against the Guardians could get me in some trouble, but the White Sox are just a game back and have the far easier schedule down the stretch. Cleveland still has to face the Red Sox, while Chicago ends their campaign with the Royals and Rockies.
AL West
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Astros | 80.5 | 81.5 | 62.6 |
Rangers | 80.5 | 81.5 | 37.8 |
Mariners | 75.8 | 86.2 | 0 |
A's | 64.4 | 97.6 | 0 |
Angels | 62.3 | 99.7 | 0 |
What the MLB experts think:
- Expert name: Chris Landers
- Division winner: Astros
- Wild Card: No
- Where the computer is wrong: I'd have the Astros as even heavier favorites to emerge as AL West champs. That's partly because Houston owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, and partly because they have a much friendlier closing schedule — with one more against Seattle before four against the bottom-dwelling A's, while the Rangers get the Mets and then a trip to Minneapolis to play the Twins.
NL East
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Braves | 94.9 | 67.1 | 100 |
Phillies | 89.5 | 72.5 | 99.8 |
Marlins | 79.3 | 82.7 | 0 |
Nationals | 76.1 | 85.9 | 0 |
Mets | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0 |
What the MLB experts think:
- Expert name: Zach Rotman
- Division winner: Braves
- Wild Card: Yes (Phillies)
- Where the computer is wrong: The supercomputer might be a bit too high on the Phillies. They’ll make the playoffs, but the Padres are one of the hottest teams in the league while Philadelphia is struggling; they won’t finish with the same record.
NL Central
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Brewers | 100.9 | 61.1 | 100 |
Cubs | 89.7 | 72.3 | 100 |
Pirates | 82.5 | 79.5 | 0 |
Cardinals | 78 | 84 | 0 |
Reds | 74.9 | 87.1 | 0 |
What the MLB experts think:
- Expert name: Mark Powell
- Division winner: Brewers
- Wild Card: Yes (Cubs)
- Where the computer is wrong: The Cubs are without Alex Bregman for the foreseeable future AND could end up stuck in Boston thanks to a nor'easter coming their way. That doesn't add up to homefield advantage in the Wild Card round, as the supercomputer suggests.
NL West
Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 100 | 62 | 100 |
Padres | 89.5 | 72.5 | 96.1 |
Diamondbacks | 85.4 | 76.6 | 4.2 |
Giants | 66.8 | 95.2 | 0 |
Rockies | 59 | 103 | 0 |
What the MLB experts think:
- Expert name: Zach Rotman
- Division winner: Dodgers
- Wild Card: Yes, Padres
- Where the computer is wrong: At just 6.3 percent odds, the Padres have the lowest odds of making it to the World Series of all NL playoff-bound clubs, per the Supercomputer. I understand that this team has had its share of ups and downs, but with Fernando Tatis swinging the bat better than he has in years, the rotation looking as stacked as it has in quite some time and Mason Miller closing out games, I think San Diego should be given more respect.
AI’s prediction for the final MLB standings
- Biggest riser: Padres
- Biggest faller: Mariners
- Final playoff team: Astros and Padres
- Team left out: Rangers and Diamondbacks
The AI model and Opta are relatively similar, which isn't all that surprising this late in the year. Both projection models have the same 12 teams making the postseason, though the experts disagree with the seeding, specifically as it relates to the Wild Card teams and the AL Central. AI's projection benefits the Padres, a team that would have to finish the season strong (4-1) to match that good will. Meanwhile, the Mariners — a team that has already been eliminated from playoff contention — are the biggest loser of this comparison exercise.
Our final projected MLB playoff field
American League
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Rays |
2 | White Sox |
3 | Astros |
4 | Yankees |
5 | Red Sox |
6 | Guardians |
Wild Card round matchups
- (1) Rays: Bye
- (2) White Sox: Bye
- (3) Astros vs (6) Guardians
- (4) Yankees vs (5) Red Sox
National League
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Brewers |
2 | Dodgers |
3 | Braves |
4 | Padres |
5 | Cubs |
6 | Phillies |
Wild Card round matchups
- (1) Brewers: Bye
- (2) Dodgers: Bye
- (3) Braves vs (6) Phillies
- (4) Padres vs (5) Cubs
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