Predicting what the MLB Wild Card standings will look like a week from now

We’ve officially entered the endgame of the 2026 MLB season, and only a select few remain untouched by the baseball overlords’ Infinity Gauntlet. 

Although there isn’t much that has changed with the division leaders, the Wild Card standings are another story. San Diego is surging, and the Blue Jays are pushing to steal the AL’s No. 6 seed from the Guardians. Elsewhere, the Phillies and Cubs are battling it out for the NL’s top Wild Card spot, which would guarantee them home-field advantage in the first round.

Plenty can change in a week, so here’s how we imagine the Wild Card standings will look on Sept. 21.

Projected American League Wild Card standings

Let’s start with the Junior Circuit, where the No. 6 seed is really the only spot left to grab.

Barring a devastating Yankees collapse, they’ll host the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series. It’d mark the seventh time in franchise history that these two have met in the playoffs, with the Yankees winning in last year’s best-of-three Wild Card duel. The Yankees previously defeated Boston in the 1999 and 2003 ALCS, while the Red Sox emerged victorious in the 2004 ALCS, 2018 ALDS, and 2021 Wild Card Game. 

We believe the Guardians will overtake the White Sox in the AL Central, which would mean the latter plays No. 3 Houston in the AL Wild Card Round. These two famously met in the 2005 World Series, when a scrappy Chicago club swept Houston — then in the AL Central — for its first championship since 1917. More recently, the Astros knocked out the White Sox in the 2021 ALDS.

Although the 75-75 Blue Jays are only one game behind Cleveland, we’re not overly optimistic about a furious Toronto comeback. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally hit his first homer at Rogers Centre, which is both remarkable and somewhat depressing. As we argued this past weekend, he’s quickly giving other owners a reason not to hand out anything close to 14-year, $500 million contracts. 

As for the Rangers, they're one game behind the Astros in the AL West and two games back in the Wild Card race. This week will make or break their postseason chances, as they host the Red Sox and Blue Jays in three-game sets.

Projected National League Wild Card standings

Things are about to get very interesting in the National League, as only the Cubs and Phillies are deadlocked atop the Wild Card standings. Meanwhile, the Padres entered Monday on a seven-game winning streak, and they’re only 1.5 games behind the No. 4 seed. 

Here’s how we think things could look at this time next week. 

Arizona sits 2.5 games back of the Padres, so these should be the NL’s three Wild Card teams. The question obviously is seeding; Chicago holds the tiebreaker, and they’d host Philadelphia in the best-of-three Wild Card Series. That’d be excellent news for Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs, who went 6-1 against Kyle Schwarber’s Phillies.

As things stand, No. 6 San Diego would play at No. 3 Atlanta, though the Padres dropped four of seven to the NL East-leading Braves. However, the Padres have defeated the Braves in both postseason matchups: the 1998 NLCS and the 2022 Wild Card Series. 

We’re predicting the Padres stay hot and the Phillies drop to No. 6, where they’d play the Braves in the postseason for the third time in the last five years. Philadelphia knocked out the Braves in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS. 

Older fans will also remember the Phillies taking down the Braves in the 1993 NLCS. Before you ask how that’s possible, Atlanta was in its final year in the NL West. It doesn’t make sense to us either.

The Cubs and Padres have met twice in the playoffs, with Chicago taking last year’s Wild Card Series. They previously met in the 1984 NLCS, and the Padres won in five games; that marked the final League Championship Series before it expanded to seven games.

San Diego and Philadelphia’s only postseason showdown came in the 2022 NLCS, when the Phillies took home the pennant in five games.

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