The Philadelphia Phillies entered their three-game series against the Atlanta Braves trailing by four games in the division race. It was an opportunity for Philadelphia to close the gap and potentially fight for home-field advantage in the Wild Card round, perhaps even a first-round bye.
Instead, the Phillies dropped the first two games of the series in embarrassing fashion. Now Philadelphia is looking back, not ahead, with the sixth-seed San Diego Padres hot on their heels.
National League Wild Card standings are working against the Phillies
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
1. Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central champs) | 93-56 | -- |
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West champs) | 90-58 | -- |
3. Atlanta Braves (NL East champs) | 88-61 | -- |
4. Chicago Cubs | 83-66 | +2.5 |
5. Philadelphia Phillies | 82-67 | +1.5 |
6. San Diego Padres | 80-68 | -- |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 79-70 | 1.5 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 74-75 | 7.0 |
The Phillies failed to take advantage of Chicago's rough start to September, with the Cubs now up a game in the standings. That would mean Chicago hosts a potential No. 4 vs. No. 5 Wild Card matchup.
More concerning, however, is how close the sixth-place Padres (and the seventh-place Diamondbacks) are to Philadelphia at this point. Whereas the Phillies are experiencing a dramatic comedown after their dominant August, the Padres are red-hot, hoping to carry this late momentum into October.
Philly only leads by 1.5 games in the standings right now. The Phillies have the fourth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in MLB (.542), with series against first-place Tampa Bay and Milwaukee still on the docket. San Diego, by comparison, ranks 20th in strength of schedule (.485), with a four-game cupcake series against the bottom-dwelling Rockies to bolster their record.
Should the Padres eclipse Philadelphia, that would leave the Phillies in the No. 6 seed — assuming the Diamondbacks don't mount their own push, which not out of the question. If the Phillies fall to the bottom seed, their path to the World Series goes from challenging to damn near insurmountable.
Phillies could stumble into Wild Card matchup with Braves or Dodgers
As the No. 6 seed, the Phillies would travel to face the No. 3 seed in the Wild Card Round. If the season ended today, it would be Atlanta in the No. 3 seed as NL East champs. The Braves are not infallible, but the last couple weeks have spotlighted Philadelphia's vulnerablility in that particular matchup. Ronald Acuña Jr. has the Phillies' number, while the Braves' stacked bullpen puts Philly at a disadvantage late in games.
Even more concerning, however, is a possible road matchup with the L.A. Dodgers. The Dodgers are strong frontrunners to win the World Series. Los Angeles currently holds a narrow 2.5-game lead over Atlanta for the National League's No. 2 seed and a first round bye. The Braves are more than capable of making up that ground; for the Dodgers, the No. 3 seed it's far from a disasterous outcome. That team is built to dominate in October, regardless of how the regular season chaos shakes out.
L.A. eliminated Philadelphia last season. With the Braves, there's at least a track record of Philadelphia outperforming them in October. The Dodgers are back-to-back champs with precious few true weaknesses. Los Angeles is the only team with the talent to mitigate Philadelphia's elite rotation. A three-game series with Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell on the docket would not bode well for a Phillies lineup that has a maddening tendency to wilt under pressure.
The Phillies are not dead in the water yet. With Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo helming the rotation, you could argue that Philadelphia is the team L.A. would least want to face in a hypothetical Wild Card matchup. But that does not really matter for the Phillies, who'd be substantial underdogs all the same. Just last October, L.A. out-executed Philly on the margins and won close, low-scoring games in the NLDS. The second half of the Phillies' lineup gives off strong Mickey Mouse vibes these days. The bullpen is worn out and their aces don't feel quite as impenetrable as they look on paper. Sánchez is limping to the finish line; Luzardo is hurt.
There's no doubting the Phillies' ability to win a few series and mount a deep run in October, but facing Los Angeles out of the gate — and on the road — is a surefire way to book an early ticket home.
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