September is in full swing, meaning all eyes are on magic numbers and the upcoming MLB playoffs. With most of the regular season complete, it comes as no surprise that most of the teams that will make and miss the playoffs are already known — but there are a couple of exceptions. The final Wild Card spots are up for grabs in both leagues, and the AL West still feels like anybody's race. Plus, seeding can be vital too, and that isn't close to being finalized.
With a lot still to be determined, we can turn to FanSided's supercomputer through Opta Analyst and look at what the final standings projections are entering play on Wednesday, Sept. 9.
Supercomputer predicts the final American League standings
The supercomputer believes that the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox, three AL East teams, will finish with the three best records in the American League, and it makes sense given what the standings have looked like for a vast majority of the second half. The Rays are 2.5-win favorites over the Yankees to win the AL East, but with Aaron Judge back and Tampa dealing with pitching injuries, it'll be interesting to see who will win that division and (likely) the No. 1 seed in the AL.
The closest race to watch down the stretch in the AL, per the supercomputer, is the hunt for the third and final Wild Card spot. The Guardians are favored and have a 1.0-game lead as of this writing, but the Blue Jays have won three straight series and they won the season series against Cleveland — giving them the tiebreaker if the teams end the season with even records. This is still anyone's race.
AL East
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 95.1 | 66.9 | 100 |
2 | New York Yankees | 92.6 | 69.4 | 100 |
3 | Boston Red Sox | 88.5 | 73.5 | 99.6 |
4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 81.2 | 80.8 | 37.4 |
5 | Baltimore Orioles | 77.4 | 84.6 | 2.4 |
AL Central
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chicago White Sox | 84.5 | 77.5 | 91.8 |
2 | Cleveland Guardians | 82.2 | 79.8 | 49.6 |
3 | Minnesota Twins | 77.2 | 84.8 | 2.8 |
4 | Detroit Tigers | 74.6 | 87.4 | 0 |
5 | Kansas City Royals | 71.2 | 90.8 | 0 |
AL West
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Houston Astros | 82.1 | 79.9 | 79.7 |
2 | Texas Rangers | 80.4 | 81.6 | 35.7 |
3 | Seattle Mariners | 75.3 | 86.7 | 1.1 |
4 | Athletics | 65.2 | 96.8 | 0 |
5 | Los Angeles Angels | 63.5 | 98.5 | 0 |
AL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
The AL East winner is likely locked into the No. 1 seed in the American League, and while the White Sox have had their share of ups and downs of late, the AL West being as bad as it is gives Chicago the inside track at claiming the second and final first-round bye. If the season ends as the supercomputer predicts, we'd get a must-watch postseason rematch featuring the Yankees and Red Sox, and a snooze-fest featuring the Astros and Guardians in the Wild Card Round. If the bracket holds, it'll be tough to envision a non-AL East team representing the AL in the World Series.
Supercomputer predicts final National League standings
Five of the six playoff spots are all but locked in when looking at the National League standings, and after the Braves were able to split their four-game series in Philadelphia over Labor Day weekend, it feels like the NL East is on the verge of being clinched, too. With that being said, the race for the final Wild Card spot should be exhilarating to follow.
The Diamondbacks have a 0.5-game lead over the Padres for that final spot as of this writing, but not only are they set to play each other in the final series of the regular season, but their season series is currently tied. This makes it close to certain that the final Wild Card spot won't be decided until the bitter end, which is the way it should be. The supercomputer seems to think it'll be a photo finish, too.
NL East
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Atlanta Braves | 94.2 | 67.8 | 100 |
2 | Philadelphia Phillies | 89.6 | 72.4 | 95.9 |
3 | Miami Marlins | 79.4 | 82.6 | 0.2 |
4 | New York Mets | 75 | 87 | 0 |
5 | Washington Nationals | 74.7 | 87.3 | 0 |
NL Central
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | 99.1 | 62.9 | 100 |
2 | Chicago Cubs | 89.8 | 72.2 | 98.9 |
3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 80.7 | 81.3 | 0.7 |
4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 79.8 | 82.2 | 0.2 |
5 | Cincinnati Reds | 75.8 | 86.3 | 0 |
NL West
Seed | Team | Predicted wins | Predicted losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 97.9 | 64.1 | 100 |
2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 86.1 | 75.9 | 56 |
3 | San Diego Padres | 85.7 | 76.3 | 48.1 |
4 | San Francisco Giants | 68.3 | 93.7 | 0 |
5 | Colorado Rockies | 63 | 99 | 0 |
NL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) Arizona Diamondbacks
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs. (5) Philadelphia Phillies
The supercomputer has the Diamondbacks beating the Padres out for the final Wild Card spot by a fraction of a win, earning the right to play a three-game series in Atlanta with hopes of then playing the two-time defending champion Dodgers in the NLDS. Another close race worth monitoring is the one for the top Wild Card spot. The Cubs and Phillies are all but locked into a matchup against each other, but home-field advantage could come in handy and is not close to being decided. The supercomputer has the Cubs winning that top spot by the narrowest of margins, but that figures to change daily until one team runs away with it (if that ever happens).
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