Ranking the MLB Wild Card Game 1 losers by chances of a comeback

Amid a time of nonstop gambling commercials and games exclusively airing on streaming services, NBC has already found another way to irritate viewers during the Wild Card Series. 

Even if you watched Tuesday’s game with the sound off, you definitely saw NBC constantly show the same statistic: Teams that won Game 1 of the Wild Card Round are 15-1 since the best-of-three format began in 2022. 

The challenge now falls on the Astros, Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox to avoid that streak becoming 19 failures in 20 tries. All four lost on Tuesday and, with another defeat on Wednesday, will head home for the winter. 

So of the four clubs who woke up Wednesday morning staring down elimination, who has the most realistic chance of overcoming the 1-0 deficit?

4. Houston Astros

Enough has been said about the Astros reaching the playoffs at 81-81, but anyone familiar with sports knows the regular season record doesn’t guarantee a championship. As we recently pointed out, eight teams have won the World Series despite being their league’s lowest seed since the playoffs expanded in 1994. 

Houston doesn’t qualify, having earned (and we’re being kind) the AL’s No. 3 seed by winning the West. But Tuesday’s 6-3 White Sox win reminded us why the Astros spent so much of the season below .500; they looked flat and overmatched at times against the upstart South Siders.  

We’d apologize to the Astros for picking against them, but they have two championships and four pennants since the start of 2017. No complaining. 

3. Chicago Cubs

Not even Pete Crow-Armstrong could save the Cubs from an embarrassing 8-0 blowout loss on Tuesday night. The Padres went 35-17 from Aug. 1 through the end of the regular season, so was anyone truly surprised by how Game 1 went down?

Chicago spent much of the final two months as the NL’s No. 4 seed before San Diego snagged the top Wild Card spot in the season’s final days. Our hopes of a Cubs-White Sox World Series are potentially in its final hours. 

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Of all the teams on this list, the Phillies are the only ones who had a lead on Tuesday. Granted, neither the Cubs nor Red Sox scored in their respective losses, but the point remains. 

So why did the Phillies place behind the Red Sox? A crushing, late-inning collapse does arguably far more to hurt morale than a blowout series-opening loss. Knowing that you were so close to victory, especially with All-Star closer Jhoan Duran on the mound, is a late 1980s Mike Tyson-level punch to the gut. 

The good news: Don Mattingly’s club will start dominant lefty Cristopher Sánchez, a likely Cy Young finalist, in Game 2. 

1. Boston Red Sox

The Yankees-Red Sox rivalry isn’t what it once was, but none of the five previous postseason series matchups featured a sweep; the Red Sox won the single-elimination Wild Card Game in 2021, and we’re not counting that here. You can't sweep a one-game playoff.

In what could potentially be his final game, Boston’s Sonny Gray — who has publicly said how much he despises the Yankees — looks to shut down his former team on Wednesday night. What better way to set the script for Game 3?

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow