The Boston Red Sox tied their franchise record with a 15-game win streak in July. There has since been a cooldown period for the Red Sox, but their postseason ticket is almost punched, with a roster that stacks up nicely against the American League competition.
Boston recently lost two of three against the last-place Angels, however, dropping to 80-67 on the season. That puts them four games behind the Yankees and 7.5 games behind first-place Tampa Bay in the competitive AL East. Let's dive into the Red Sox' postseason outlook.
What is the Red Sox magic number to make the playoffs?
The Red Sox' magic number entering Thursday is nine. The formula to determine magic numbers, per MLB.com, is: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). For Boston, that comes out to: 15 + 1 - (74-67) = 9.
Essentially, Boston is seven games ahead of Toronto (73-74), the current seventh-place team in the American League standings — and first team out of the AL postseason. The Red Sox need nine wins to secure a spot in the postseason.
What is the Red Sox magic number to win the AL East?
The Red Sox are currently 7.5 games behind the Rays (87-59) in the AL East standings. Tampa's magic number to win the division (and eliminate Boston) is nine: 16 + 1 - (67-59) = 9. In short, the Rays need nine wins to prevent the Red Sox from claiming the AL East crown.
The Red Sox are fighting an uphill battle with so little time left in the season. Moreover, Tampa has the momentum, while the second-place Yankees are also within 3.5 games of Tampa, giving them far better odd of surpassing the Rays (and outlasting the Red Sox).
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Red Sox postseason matchups
New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays
If the season ended today, Boston would claim the No. 5 seed and face No. 4 New York in the Wild Card round. That's a thrilling proposition, as Red Sox-Yankees is the most storied rivalry in baseball and there's no love lost between either team. Boston can, in theory, surge past New York and claim home field advantage, although the math favors the Yankees. New York has the best run differential in the American League (+124) and Aaron Judge recently made his triumphant return from injury.
Should the Yankees catch fire and surpass Tampa, then it would be the Rays facing Boston in the 4-5 matchup — another division rivalry, albeit with less narrative bite. Tampa has the better record, and has all season, but the Red Sox are +24 in run differential, with a far deeper lineup and a healthier pitching staff. That series probably favors Boston, even if Tampa is hosting.
Chicago White Sox/Houston Astros/Cleveland Guardians
The Red Sox currently hold a six-game lead over sixth-place Cleveland for the No. 5 seed. Odds are, Boston will need drop lower than its current position in the standings. If the Red Sox were to collapse and fall to the No. 6 seed, however, the matchup possibilities open up.
The No. 3 seed currently belongs to the AL West-leading Astros, meaning Boston would travel to Houston for a three-game series. Houston is only 1.5 games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox for the No. 2 seed, however. Given the Southsiders' makeshift rotation, it wouldn't be the least bit shocking if Chicago fell, setting up Sox vs. Sox in the Wild Card round.
Chicago's lead over Cleveland in the AL Central is also precarious at best, currently at 2.0 games. The Guardians are playing better baseball right now, with a much deeper rotation and far more high-pressure experience than the young White Sox. So, there's a world in which Boston is traveling to Cleveland, although it's the less likely scenario.
In all of those series, Boston is probably the on-paper favorite given the strength of their rotation and bullpen. Cleveland struggles to generate power offensively; Houston and Chicago can hit well enough to challenge the Red Sox, but are both operating at a talent deficit on the mound.
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