It's hard to remember a year where things felt this uncertain as the MLB playoffs began. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the two-time defending World Series champions, but they are once again not the top seed in the NL, and they spent much of the second half with a sleepy offense and a floundering bullpen. The top seed in the AL, the Tampa Bay Rays, is at this point an underdog pick to actually make the World Series. The Yankees, the Red Sox, the Cubs, the Padres — you could make an argument for just about any of the 12 teams in the field to be the last one standing.
Which is why we're calling in a little professional help to try and figure out what's about to happen in October. We've got our own predictions, but if the postseason has taught us anything it's that we so often know less than we think we do. Luckily, we have Opta to help us out. Their computer has crunched the numbers all year long, and has now produced championship odds that project how it thinks the next few weeks will play out. And the results may shock you — including a new world champ.
Supercomputer prediction for the entire MLB playoffs
American League
Team | Make LCS | Make World Series | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 47.4% | 27.4% | 11.5% |
New York Yankees | 31.3% | 19.5% | 9.1% |
Cleveland Guardians | 52.9% | 22.1% | 8.4% |
Boston Red Sox | 21.4% | 12.1% | 5.6% |
Chicago White Sox | 29.1% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
Houston Astros | 18% | 6.4% | 1.9% |
National League
Team | Make LCS | Make World Series | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 58.8% | 32.9% | 21% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.9% | 30.9% | 18.9% |
Chicago Cubs | 24.2% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
Atlanta Braves | 23.7% | 10.8% | 5.8% |
San Diego Padres | 17.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 16.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% |
Final AL playoff bracket, per supercomputer
Given the odds above, here's how the computer sees the AL playoff bracket shaking out.
- (4) New York Yankees def. (5) Boston Red Sox
- (6) Chicago White Sox def. (3) Houston Astros
- (1) Tampa Bay Rays def. (4) New York Yankees
- (2) Cleveland Guardians def. (6) Chicago White Sox
- (1) Tampa Bay Rays def. (2) Cleveland Guardians
It should be no surprise that the computer sees Tampa as having the best odds of winning the American League pennant; the Rays were the best team in the AL for most of the season, with its best run differential to boot. What might be a tad surprising is that it's the Guardians — rather than the Red Sox or Yankees — that have the second-highest odds. That probably has as much to do with Cleveland's path to the ALCS as much as anything, as they'll get home-field advantage against the winner of the Astros-White Sox Wild Card series in the ALDS.
Final NL playoff picture, per supercomputer
Here's how the computer predicts the NL bracket will look. Spoiler alert: It has the top-seeded Brewers, not the Dodgers, as the team making it to the Fall Classic.
- (5) Chicago Cubs def. (4) San Diego Padres
- (3) Atlanta Braves def. (6) Philadelphia Phillies
- (1) Milwaukee Brewers def. (5) Chicago Cubs
- (2) Los Angeles Dodgers def. (3) Atlanta Braves
- (1) Milwaukee Brewers def. (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
You really get a sense of just how much the NL is a two-team race between Milwaukee and L.A.; each team has pennant odds north of 30 percent, while no one else in the Senior Circuit has better than 11.8 percent. Given the question marks surrounding the Braves, Padres, Cubs and Phillies right now — rotation depth for the first three, a disappearing offense for the latter — it's hard to argue.
Why supercomputer thinks the Brewers, not the Dodgers, are World Series favorites
On paper, at least, the Brewers' resume looks pretty spotless. Milwaukee won at least 100 games for the first time in franchise history, cruising to both the best record and the best run differential in baseball. They were third in team wRC+ and second in team ERA; everything about what they did this year checks out, statistically speaking.
Of course, these games aren't played on paper. The computer can't know just how many question marks Milwaukee has in its rotation behind Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. It can't know that this Brewers offense got more or less totally shut down by the Dodgers pitching staff when they met in last year's NLCS.
Will history repeat itself? Is this finally Milwaukee's year? They're going to need both the Miz and Henderson to shove pretty much every time out. They're also going to need their offensive formula to show up far more consistently this October than it did last October. But the Dodgers face plenty of questions themselves, from their offense to their bullpen, and Milwaukee will have home-field advantage once again.
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