It's late August, so the MLB standings are bound to change a bit between now and late September. That's doubly true for the Wild Card race in both leagues. No team is truly out of it, and that includes the lowly Mets, who fell to the bottom of the National League and sold off most of their assets at the trade deadline, and the Detroit Tigers, which did the same by dealing Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers. This season more than any, the trade deadline was not telling of any MLB team's short-term plans.
Predictions are the name of the game in this business. I've made far too many that I'm not proud of, and I'm supposed to be an expert. Thankfully, we have Opta to help us out. Yes, the aforementioned 'supercomputer' mentioned in this headline is yet another projection model that determines how the season will finish. We've done this exercise recently, but like any model, predictions can change based on recent results, injuries or remaining strength of schedule.
Supercomputer predicts the final American League standings
The American League is coming down to the wire on multiple fronts. The most obvious is the AL Wild Card race, which still has seven teams (possibly more soon) in play for one spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have the first two AL Wild Card spots secured, barring an absolute collapse.
The AL West remains an enigma. Sure, the Astros are projected to win the division, but the Texas Rangers are right behind them. It's looking more possible by the day that the winner in the West won't have a .500 record. Yikes.
AL East
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rays | 92.5 | 69.5 | 99.8 |
2 | Yankees | 92 | 70 | 99.8 |
3 | Red Sox | 88.6 | 73.4 | 97.8 |
4 | Blue Jays | 80 | 82 | 27.2 |
5 | Orioles | 78.1 | 83.9 | 12.1 |
AL Central
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | White Sox | 84.8 | 77.2 | 86 |
2 | Guardians | 80.6 | 81.4 | 37.2 |
3 | Tigers | 78.6 | 83.4 | 14.1 |
4 | Twins | 78 | 84 | 14.6 |
5 | Royals | 71 | 91 | 0.1 |
AL West
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Astros | 79.8 | 82.2 | 49.1 |
2 | Rangers | 78.9 | 83.1 | 35.5 |
3 | Mariners | 78 | 84 | 26.8 |
4 | Angels | 66.8 | 95.2 | 0 |
5 | Athletics | 63.8 | 98.2 | 0 |
American League playoff picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs (5) Boston Red Sox
New York could make a play at the AL East. In the projected final standings above, Opta suggests the Yankees will finish less than a game behind the Rays. Assuming a few results go their way, the Yankees could have the best record in the AL when all is said and done, which could secure them a first-round bye.
Supercomputer predicts the final National League standings
The Brewers are favored to land the No.1 seed in the National League thanks to their recent series victory over the Dodgers, in which they took three of four games. Yet, the Dodgers remain on the hunt for National League paydirt, and are the favorites to win the pennant. On Saturday night, Tarik Skubal reached a new gear, and has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last two starts.
The races to watch in the NL are in the Wild Card. The Cubs have the first spot essentially wrapped up, but the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Phillies are duking it out for the other two.
NL East
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Braves | 92.4 | 69.6 | 97.9 |
2 | Phillies | 88.7 | 73.3 | 84.2 |
3 | Marlins | 81.4 | 80.6 | 9.2 |
4 | Nationals | 76.8 | 85.2 | 0.3 |
5 | Mets | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0 |
NL Central
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brewers | 99.3 | 62.7 | 100 |
2 | Cubs | 90.7 | 71.3 | 94.5 |
3 | Cardinals | 81.6 | 80.4 | 8.1 |
4 | Pirates | 78.8 | 83.2 | 1.5 |
5 | Reds | 75 | 87 | 0 |
NL West
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dodgers | 97.2 | 64.8 | 100 |
2 | Padres | 86.5 | 75.5 | 62.9 |
3 | Diamondbacks | 84.8 | 77.2 | 41.4 |
4 | Giants | 66.7 | 95.3 | 0 |
5 | Rockies | 64.2 | 97.8 | 0 |
National League playoff picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs (6) San Diego Padres
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs (5) Philadelphia Phillies
Not much has changed in the NL Playoff race since the last time we spoke, but the latest update isn't good news for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona is dealing with some off-field drama thanks to Ketel Marte, who left the team for personal reasons last week. In their place, the Phillies are expected to secure the No. 5 seed in the National League, and the second Wild Card spot. The Phils' World Series window is closing fast, so Dave Dombrowski better hope his aggressive trade deadline pays off.
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