The Astros’ toughest offseason player decisions start with their arbitration class

The Houston Astros’ first order of business this offseason is to hire a general manager.

The Astros and Dana Brown “mutually agreed” to part ways on Aug. 24. Houston still went on to win the American League West for the franchise’s ninth postseason appearance in 10 years, but there was ultimately little reason to celebrate. At 81-81, the Astros became the first MLB team to reach the playoffs in a full season without having a winning record. The visiting Chicago White Sox then swept the Astros in two games in an ALWCS last week at Minute Maid Park.

One scout who covered that series said this to FanSided about the Astros’ effort against the White Sox, “It looked like they didn’t want to be there. They should have just forfeited.”

That does not bode well for the future of manager Joe Espada, whose contract expires at the end of the month. It also doesn't bode well for whoever Houston taps to lead its front office moving forward, as they'll be facing several tricky arbitration cases while trying to fill several holes on a roster that simply wasn't good enough in 2026.

As far as the next GM, multiple baseball sources say the job is Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell’s if he wants it. Bagwell is a senior advisor to owner Jim Crane, and they have a close relationship. Still, the 58-year-old is weighing whether he wants to take on the time demands of running a team’s baseball operations department.

Astros arbitration projections for 2027 season

The next GM will need to pick a manager, and the first thing he — or she —needs to do, from a player-personnel standpoint, is decide what to do with the Astros’ 11 arbitration-eligible players. And that list includes several of the most important players on the roster.

Most of those projections are reasonable enough. Even players like Yainer Diaz, who is hardly a star, still should produce more than enough to make good on their arbitration salaries barring something very unexpected. Getting Hunter Brown back for seven figures is always good business, while someone like Jake Meyers is a pretty easy non-tender candidate.

The headliners, though, are set to come in substantially higher than that. And while both Paredes and Peña are very good players who Houston will need to contend next season, their arbitration salaries could put the Astros in a tricky spot.

Several Astros arbitration projections put the team in a rough spot

The Astros also hold a club option on Paredes for $13.35 million for 2027, and it would be cheaper to exercise it than go through arbitration. The contract has no buyout. Though there are no signs that Houston is ready to go into full rebuilt mode, they do need young talent and could acquire it by picking up Paredes’ option and trading him.

Like Paredes, Peña can become a free agent after next season. The shortstop's situation has reached critical mass: The Astros either need to commit to him as a cornerstone player or trade him for a sizable haul.

The Astros faced a similar situation with right fielder Kyle Tucker during the 2024-25 offseason and traded him to the Chicago Cubs. However, Peña’s case is a bit different because he desires to stay with the Astros and is part of franchise lore after being the MVP of the NLCS and World Series as a rookie in 2022.

It is difficult to imagine both Paredes and Peña on the opening-day roster for at least a combined $26 million when infield depth is one of the Astros’ strengths.

Brown, Lambert, Wesneski and Blanco all figure to be tendered. Meyers, though, will likely be cut after finishing the season at Triple-A. Allen, Trammell and Sousa could also be gone if the Astros feel they need to open spots to protect players on the 40-man roster.

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