The 2026 season has been a rough one for the Toronto Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a shell of his MVP-caliber self, they're tied for the second-fewest runs in the majors, and they haven't been above .500 since the beginning of April, leading them to trade rentals like Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho at the deadline in an effort to prepare for 2027 and beyond. Despite all that's gone wrong, the Jays enter Monday's action at 64-68, just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.
The Jays are one of a whopping seven teams within 3.5 games of each other battling for that final Wild Card spot. In such a tight race, even the slightest edge could decide how things unfold. The Jays have an edge that no other team in the Wild Card race can match - an almost impossibly easy schedule.
Blue Jays schedule could gift them final Wild Card spot
In terms of strength of schedule, the Jays have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league, trailing only the Seattle Mariners. With that being said, the Mariners have a three-game series this week against the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies, and they're set to travel to Boston to face the 71-59 Red Sox (right after facing the Blue Jays in Toronto the series prior). Getting to face bottom-feeders like the Athletics, the Los Angeles Angels and the Colorado Rockies helps, but what if I told you the Jays don't play a single winning team down the stretch?
Dates | Opponent | Record | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|
August 25-27 | Kansas City Royals | 58-74 | Home |
August 28-30 | Seattle Mariners | 62-69 | Home |
September 1-3 | Cleveland Guardians | 65-66 | Away |
September 4-6 | Kansas City Royals | 58-74 | Away |
September 7-9 | Athletics | 51-80 | Away |
September 11-13 | Baltimore Orioles | 63-68 | Home |
September 14-16 | Detroit Tigers | 61-69 | Home |
September 18-20 | Texas Rangers | 65-66 | Away |
September 21-23 | Baltimore Orioles | 63-68 | Away |
September 25-27 | Cincinnati Reds | 62-69 | Home |
I wasn't kidding. As of this writing, none of the teams that the Jays are set to play down the stretch are even .500, let alone have a winning record. That's almost unfathomable, given that there's still a full month of the regular season to be played.
Now, the Jays need to take advantage of this, and it's no guarantee that they will, given how inconsistent they've been all year. A vast majority of these matchups are against teams they're in competition with for that final Wild Card spot. Avoiding the tough teams, though, could be what gets the Jays into the postseason.
Blue Jays schedule gives them as good a chance as any Wild Card contender to make the playoffs
A big reason why the Jays have had such a disappointing season has come down to their performance against winning teams. They've gone 33-42 against teams at or above .500 this season, one of the worst marks in the American League. As underwhelming as that may be, that means they've gone 31-26 against losing teams. In other words, they're five games over .500 against the kinds of teams they'll be facing the final month of the season.
That isn't all that stellar, but if the Jays were five games over .500, they'd be sitting comfortably in that third Wild Card spot. At the end of the day, the American League is putrid, meaning that if the Jays can simply take care of the bad teams, as they've done for much of the year, why can't they make up their 1.5-game deficit and make the playoffs?
The Jays feel like a sleeping giant. They've been here before, having made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series just last year, and they've been much better of late, having won 15 of their last 25 games. The rotation has absurd potential with Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano leading the way, Louis Varland has been as dominant as any closer, and this team could very well be a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hot streak away from being a very sneaky sleeper in this remarkably weak American League.
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