Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- One of baseball's highest-paid players is struggling badly with both performance and health this season.
- Advanced metrics show a steep decline in his contact quality and power output compared to previous years.
- The team's championship aspirations now hinge on whether two key contributors can rebound dramatically in the postseason.
Only the Los Angeles Dodgers could own the sport’s best record while their top free agent signings underperform and land on the injured list. Major League Baseball is the Dodgers and 29 other teams. The sooner you accept that, the quicker you’ll enjoy yourselves watching baseball.
Just ask Kyle Tucker, who might want to avoid social media. Not only is Tucker battling a back injury, but he’s managed just a .707 OPS in nearly 320 plate appearances. He’s on pace for career lows in most categories, and he’s come nowhere close to justifying his $60 million yearly salary. On the one hand, the NL West-leading Dodgers’ focus should be — and likely is — on how Tucker will fare in October.
However, while also acknowledging that hindsight is 20/20, it is fair to wonder whether Tucker had red flags entering free agency.
Did Kyle Tucker’s inconsistent 2025 season mean more than we thought?
Yeah, yeah, we know. Humans lie, numbers don’t. And while some of the Sports-Reference sites do lie on occasion*, Baseball-Reference isn’t one of them. So when you look at Tucker’s 2025 stats, everything looks relatively normal. His power numbers were slightly down, but his .377 on-base percentage was the second-best of his career.
And yet, something felt off with Tucker during the second half. Wrigley Field booed him when he didn’t run out a play, which in itself was a shocking sight given how aggressive a player Tucker is. Frankly, Tucker looked like someone who knew he was about to get paid the big bucks and couldn’t handle the subsequent pressure of needing to justify such a payday.
It’s hard to feel bad for someone who eventually signed a four-year, $240 million deal with the two-time defending World Series champions. Tucker probably sees more money in a week than some of us receive over a five-year stretch.
The advanced stats make Kyle Tucker look even worse for the Dodgers
But you hear all of the cliches about how the mental aspect of sports makes or breaks players. I’m old enough to remember Rick Ankiel’s heartwarming transition from a pitcher with the “yips” to a power-hitting outfielder. We must note that at no point has Tucker said, or even hinted, that he was or is mentally affected by the pressures of a large contract.
With that said, it’s a fair question, even more so given his inconsistency in Chicago last season. Tucker hasn’t looked right for nearly a calendar year. His OPS dropped nearly 150 points in the second half, and he hasn’t even been worth 1.0 bWAR with the Dodgers. During Tucker's final seasons in Houston, he finished in the 78th, 70th, and 68th percentile in barrel rate. He's in the 24th percentile so far this season. Meanwhile, his barrel rate went from 10.8% (already quite low) in 2025 to just under six percent this season.
Tucker has been mediocre at best, and All-Star closer Edwin Díaz was dreadful before undergoing elbow surgery in April. Díaz is expected back in July, and Tucker appears unlikely to need an IL stint for his back.
All it takes is a strong October for Tucker and Díaz to be heroes in Los Angeles. Championships tend to cure all, especially for teams with a payroll exceeding $300 million.
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