The Pirates and Rays are about to guarantee an MLB lockout

Using the tired “David vs. Goliath” cliche about this week’s series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers isn’t just missing the point; it’s incredibly uninformed.

Yes, we know that the Dodgers are the heavy spenders, while the Rays are typically in the postseason hunt despite a penchant for penny pinching. We’ve been hearing those kinds of narratives for nearly 20 years, with the Dodgers often replaced in those discussions by the likes of the Yankees or Red Sox. 

Not only are both teams in the playoff picture, but they’ll have a chance to improve at the deadline. The Dodgers would certainly benefit from further pitching depth, while the Rays need to bolster their lineup.

After decades of watching baseball, though, we feel comfortable predicting that none of the small-market contenders like the Rays or Pirates will make any meaningful upgrades — and if they stick to that plan, then there truly is no hope of avoiding a lockout.

The 2026 MLB trade deadline could foreshadow an impending lockout

We’re not trying to be dramatic when we bring up the possibility of a work stoppage. Not when a salary cap — and potentially a salary floor — is the most significant issue that the owners and players are battling over.

To their credit, the Pirates actually spent last offseason, and they’ve already extended shortstop Konnor Griffin. Although concerns continue mounting regarding whether ace Paul Skenes will eventually sign a long-term extension, at least the Pirates have tried building around the reigning NL Cy Young winner.

But the Pirates must take that next step and do whatever it takes to add another bat. By no means are we suggesting they must trade for Willy Adames and Rafael Devers, both of whom have massive contracts. It’d nonetheless be extremely encouraging, though, if Pittsburgh acquired an above-average player without overthinking their salary and a potential commitment beyond this year.

There are no excuses in a salary cap-free sport. I don’t want to hear any team try to cry poor or argue they can’t compete with the Dodgers or Mets. No one is asking the Pirates, Rays, or Guardians to try fielding a team with at least a $200 million payroll. That’s not the point, nor has it ever been.

Aroldis Chapman’s salary shouldn’t matter to the Pirates if they want bullpen help. Ian Happ should command a multi-year deal next year, and he’d be an instant outfield upgrade for the Rays. Fear and stubbornness are the only things standing in the way of Tampa Bay pursuing a player like Happ.

Those who love analytics can point all they want to the Rays’ organizational approach, but what do they have to show for it? They’ve never won the World Series, and they’ve regularly traded their best players to avoid paying them. The A’s took the Moneyball approach and were swept in their lone ALCS appearance this century. At least they got a Brad Pitt movie out of it.

The Pirates reached the playoffs three consecutive times from 2013-15, but most of that core was gone by Opening Day 2019. Gerrit Cole was in Houston, Andrew McCutchen had moved on, and the Pirates put their future in the hands of a new group that rarely even approached 70 wins. Great job, all.

It’s on the Rays, Pirates, Guardians, and other smaller-market teams to want to change … and yet, does anyone truly believe that they’ll do so? Why would anyone have any genuine faith in those ownership groups spending in a salary cap era? If anything, they’ll be even less motivated to sign free agents or make high-profile moves at the trade deadline. There’s a difference between a floor and a cap, after all.

Personally, I don’t want to hear the excuses come October. The Dodgers don’t win championships solely because they sign the best players. They’ve become baseball’s latest dynasties by balancing player development with player acquisition. Notice how no one ever talks about the impact that players like Will Smith or Max Muncy have had on those title teams? 

Oh, and the Rays are still trying to land that new stadium. They won’t spend in free agency, but they want taxpayer money to fund a ballpark. 

I’d say wake me up when these teams get with the program, but I don’t want to sleep through games involving those who get it and have prioritized winning. 

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