Only one pitcher in the major leagues had more trade value than Paul Skenes when the season began, and Shohei Ohtani held that distinction only because he is also capable of hitting 50 home runs and stealing 50 bases in a season.
Though Skenes hit 24 home runs during his two years playing catcher at the Air Force Academy, his dreams of someday being a two-way star in the big leagues ended when he transferred to LSU in 2023 and led the Tigers to the College World Series championship.
Yet Skenes accrued plenty of value as a one-way player. The big right-hander won the National League Rookie of the Year in 2024 and the NL Cy Young Award last season, compiling a microscopic 1.96 ERA over 55 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Skenes’ early exit raises eyebrows
While plenty of teams would still take Skenes, his trade value has certainly dipped this year as he is having a pedestrian season that includes a drop in his velocity. That trade value fell lower on Tuesday night when the right-hander was removed after five innings in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins in Miami despite allowing just two runs and throwing 65 pitches.
Pirates manager Don Kelly and Skenes downplayed the early exit while talking with reporters following the game.
“Guys in August aren’t 100%," Kelly said. "It wasn’t injury-related that he came out. Just thought it gave us the best chance to win there.”
Two texts from people in other organizations can’t be passed off as a large sample size, but they were telling — and unsolicited.
“Uh oh,” read a text from an executive. A scout texted, “worst fears realized?”
Paul Skenes hasn’t seemed right for months
Whether there is something wrong remains to be seen, but Skenes has seemed off kilter for most of the season, beginning on opening day when failing to make it through the first inning against the Mets.
Skenes is 9-11 with a 3.88 ERA in 25 starts overall this season. Yet since pitching eight scoreless innings and allowing two hits in consecutive starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies on May 6 and 12, he has a 3-9 record and 5.00 ERA in 16 starts, just five of which have been quality starts.
Most concerning is Skenes’ average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph this year. While that puts Skenes in the 85th percentile of major league pitchers, it is down from last year’s 98.1 average and 98.8 as a rookie. Furthermore, Skenes has yet to throw a 100-mph pitch all season.
Big-market behemoths inquired about Skenes’ availability last winter and were immediately turned away by Pirates general manager Ben Cherington. The Pirates’ plan for 2026 was to contend for their first postseason berth since 2015 with Skenes leading the way.
However, 15 losses in 21 games have dropped the Pirates six games out of the third NL wild card. The fans’ dreams of a Buctober have all vanished, just another disappointment for a franchise that hasn’t won a division title since 1992
Also concerning are the Pirates and Skenes coming off as being disingenuous when they continue to insist that nothing is wrong.
Something is up with Skenes. And it’s not his trade value.
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