The fading Pirates face a season-defining decision with Paul Skenes

Somehow, we’ve reached a point where Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes allowing three earned runs and four walks in six innings feels like the new weekly standard.

For reasons still to be determined, Skenes is having his worst season, and things keep getting worse. Typically, a 24-year-old owning a 3.96 ERA and being well on pace for 200 strikeouts wouldn’t represent a bad year. But Skenes is the reigning NL Cy Young winner who began his career with as dominant a two-year stretch as we’ve seen from a young pitching phenom in a long time. 

With the Pirates quickly fading out of the Wild Card race, management could find itself in a difficult position. Baseball fans won’t want to hear it, but perhaps the best thing for all parties is to begin limiting his workload ahead of the always-controversial September shutdown.

The Pittsburgh Pirates should be extremely concerned by Paul Skenes’ regression

Counting stats tell part of the story, as do advanced metrics. The eye test only goes so far, because it’s easy enough to say, “Skenes doesn’t look like himself.” That’s as obvious as saying that every pitch involves a baseball. 

The good news is that Skenes’ 30.5% strikeout rate is up a full point from last year. However, his walk percentage has shot up from 5.7% to 6.8%, and opponents are hitting .226 with a .662 OPS against him. Consider that he allowed a .198 average and .555 OPS over his first 320 ⅔ innings.

What’s especially questionable is why the Pirates have kept Skenes’ pitch count so high. Over his last eight starts, Skenes has averaged 94 pitches, which doesn’t sound bad at first glance. Even those fans in their late 20s will remember the days when a starter finishing with fewer than 100 pitches often meant they had a rough night on the mound.

Paul Skenes pitch count is a concern moving forward

But only twice in that span has Skenes even completed six innings. He even threw 100 pitches in four innings during a loss to the Reds last week. Given the current climate and how many pitchers have undergone elbow or shoulder surgery, why would the Pirates even bother to keep Skenes on the mound that long?

The days of asking a starter to go out every fifth day and throw 100 pitches are long gone, and that’s the unfortunate reality, at least if you’re an old-fashioned purist. So outside of appeasing ticket holders, what would be the point of having Skenes pitch in September if the freefall continues? There is no shame in ending his season prematurely and giving him a chance to rest up and reset. 

Skenes and the Pirates have hit a point in their rebuild where the expectation should be to contend for a playoff berth. Anything less than that would mark an immense disappointment, the latest in a decades-long stretch of futility. They’ve built their young core, and the next step is following through. But they can only do so much without a healthy and confident Skenes.

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