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The stats show Juan Soto could have a better MLB GOAT case than Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani

Using career WAR trajectories, Soto actually has a better chance of retiring among the best to ever do it. It's a specific case, but an interesting one no less.
ByOliver Fox|
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Jun 15, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto (22) at bat in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Jun 15, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto (22) at bat in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images | Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • One active MLB player is currently on a WAR pace that rivals some of the sport's all-time legends.
  • The key factor separating this player from others is an unusually early debut that allowed consistent WAR accumulation from a very young age.
  • The statistical projection suggests a realistic path to retiring as the greatest hitter in baseball history, though sustaining performance remains the challenge.

I’m not saying Juan Soto will be the greatest of all time, nor is he most observers’ pick among active players to become the GOAT — that would be Shohei Ohtani. All I’m saying is that, through a fairly common statistical lens, Soto probably has the best chance of all active players to retire as the GOAT. 

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the closest thing we have in baseball to a holy grail stat. There is supreme disagreement between bWAR (Baseball Reference) and fWAR (FanGraphs) calculations, but it's one of the only catch-all numbers we have to compare players across different eras. Thousands upon thousands of hours have gone into the optimization of WAR, and it is a frequently cited statistic when discussing the historical stature of certain players. It certainly matters to Hall of Fame voters, and is absolutely brought up in the baseball GOAT conversation; Babe Ruth often takes home the crown because he is, by far, MLB’s all-time leader in WAR.

From WAR alone, Soto is on a better pace than Ohtani or Judge

I’m not necessarily saying the GOAT debate should be about WAR; in fact, I’ve literally said the opposite in my piece making the case for Shohei Ohtani — capturing one’s imagination, being the best and the coolest and the most memorable, all of that matters. In that sense, everyone has their own GOAT. 

That’s all cute. (slaps you across the face) But it’s time to wake up. We live in a ruthlessly controlled statistical world that maximizes scalable insight-driven growth consulted solutions. You think we can get by with vibes? Get out of my face; it’s time for WAR. It’s time to figure out who among MLB’s current crop of superstars has the best chance to measure up with the all-time greats, statistically speaking and there’s really only one answer: Juan Soto.

The above graph is the whole point of this argument, so really drink it in. We have many lines and colors, but you’ll notice two things right off the bat. First, Ohtani and Judge simply started accumulating WAR too late in their careers to have much of a chance at the big numbers; Judge spent too long in the Minors and Ohtani was in Japan. You’ll also notice, if you look closely, that Juan Soto is very much on pace with the likes of Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds if he can keep up his WAR accumulation for another 13 years or so. 

Mike Trout once had even better numbers. Can Soto keep it up?

Soto is not the first player to be on pace with these all-timers, which is also why I included Mike Trout — an all-timer himself, to be sure, but also one whose peak came much earlier and then tailed off hard. If you look at everyone when they were 27 years old, Trout was easily on pace to be the greatest player ever. It was not even close.

But wait, you may be saying, does that graph include Ohtani’s WAR as a pitcher? No, it does not, and while there is no way to properly account for that using fWAR (you can’t just add up the two WAR numbers, you’ll wind up double counting a bunch of stuff), I’ve drawn a very, very (very) rough line of about where Ohtani would be if we counted pitching.

The slopes of Ohtani and Judge’s careers are those of all-time greats, no doubt, but both cannot hope to catch the top dogs because of their late starts. Soto, meanwhile, benefited from his 19-year-old call up and immediately began impacting the game at a high level. It’s not a surprising element, but it's at least interesting to consider, especially since it is totally unique to baseball. Most other sports have reasonably standard rookie ages, but MLB is all over the place. 

When Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets, it was almost impossible to say he was worth the sheer magnitude of that number. But would you have signed a 26-year-old Babe Ruth to that deal? A 26-year-old Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, if you knew how the rest of their careers would go? Certainly. Trout was on a better pace than this — far better — and so it’s possible Soto will tail off like most who try to become, ya know, the GOAT. But looking at the on-pace numbers, there is at least a chance he retires the greatest hitter of all time. When you’re watching it in real time, that’s pretty cool to think about.

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