The strongest case for Yankees optimism nobody wants to admit ahead of Red Sox series

New York Yankees fans are still reeling from the news that Aaron Judge will be out for at least the next 4-6 weeks — and almost certainly longer than that — due to a stress fracture in his ribs. Not that you can blame them: At some point or another, something has always seemed to go wrong during the Judge era, and losing the two-time reigning AL MVP for an extended period of time naturally raises questions about whether New York's hopes of a long-elusive 28th World Series title are already cooked.

But while I certainly understand the angst, I'd like to talk my fellow Bleacher Creatures off the ledge just a bit. Yes, Judge going down is a serious blow, and yes, it will impact the Yankees' odds of getting back to the top of the AL East. Take a deep breath, though, and it's not hard to talk yourself into all of this team's goals still being very much in front of them.

The Yankees have one of baseball's better offenses even without Aaron Judge

This might come as a shock to a certain portion of the fan base who continues to insist that the Yankees can't hit, but New York has been one of the very best offenses in the sport so far this season, ranking fifth in the Majors in run scored and second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers in more holistic stats like wRC+ and wOBA. And it's far from a one-man band, either. Ben Rice has been flat-out better than Judge at the plate in 2026, and even if you remove Judge's numbers from the equation, New York would still have a team-wide wRC+ of 109 — a top-five mark in the league.

Rice is one of the five to 10 best hitters in baseball in his own right. Cody Bellinger has quietly been a two-way force, with underlying numbers that harken back to his MVP days in L.A. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has recovered from his icy start to post an .802 OPS since the beginning of May. Trent Grisham's numbers are down from 2025, but that has as much to do with bad luck as anything, and he's still managed to be an OBP machine and a league-average bat overall. Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario and Jose Caballero offer real depth against left-handed pitching, and while the picture isn't quite as rosy against righties, Jasson Dominguez is starting a rehab assignment with Giancarlo Stanton not far behind.

Grisham, Rice, Bellinger and Chisholm Jr. is a perfectly credible top half of the order, with some room for growth. There's no reason why this group, as currently constituted and with two meaningful pieces returning in the near future, can't still be pretty good. And really, with the way this team has pitched, pretty good is more than enough to keep their heads above water until Judge returns.

Run prevention — and a weak AL — could keep the Yankees above water

It's hard to overstate how good New York's rotation has been to start the season, ranking in the top five — if not the top three — in darn near every major category. The bullpen doesn't inspire the same amount of confidence, but all of Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Will Warren and Ryan Weathers give the Yankees a shot at quality depth every single day. With that kind of support, the offense doesn't need to be a world-beater; they just need to consistently find ways to scratch across some runs, and their pitchers can drag them across the finish line from there.

Is that an ironclad process? Of course not; again, the Yankees' only goal here should be to get to the All-Star break without torpedoing their playoff chances. Given just how messy the AL postseason picture is right now, that shouldn't be too hard: There's a reason why FanGraphs gives New York a 97.3% chance of making the playoffs right now, behind only the Dodgers and Braves. That number doesn't have Judge's absence baked in, but it does speak to the fact that the Yankees are seven games clear of the field in the Wild Card chase; it would take an abject collapse to put this season in serious jeopardy.

Granted, we saw last year the damage settling for a Wild Card berth can do, as the Yankees lost the AL East to the Blue Jays via head-to-head tiebreaker and then lost to Toronto in four games in the ALDS without the benefit of home-field advantage. But at a certain point, all you can ask for is to give yourselves a chance. There's still a whole lot of talent on this team, and considering the relative lack of talent around them, they should be fine if — and this is a big if — Judge is able to return in August at something close to his usual self.

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