Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Four All-Stars from the 2026 Midsummer Classic face significant challenges in repeating their selections this year.
- Each player struggles with unsustainable performance metrics or faces intense positional competition within their leagues.
- The debate over their futures highlights broader questions about what defines an All-Star-caliber player in today's MLB landscape.
The MLB All-Star Game features the game's best players, many of whom you expect to see back in the game (if healthy) year after year. And understandably so: Reaching the pinnacle of the sport means you're doing something right, and it's hard to envision an All-Star Game being played without the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Mike Trout, assuming they're all healthy.
With that being said, not every player who makes it to an All-Star Game makes it back. These four players (not including the obvious selection of Justin Verlander, who made the AL roster as a legends pick in his final MLB season) made an appearance in this year's Midsummer Classic, but it's hard to envision them making it back in the future.
LHP Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers
Being on a stacked Los Angeles Dodgers team has distracted MLB fans from realizing just how good Justin Wrobleski has been. In his first big-league season as a full-time starter, the southpaw has gone 10-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 16 appearances. Given the injuries the Dodgers have had, Wrobleski's impact has been greater than anyone could've imagined.
Is that ERA really sustainable, though? Wrobleski has a sub-3.00 ERA despite a 4.10 xERA and an 18.3 percent strikeout rate. It's not even as if he's limiting hard contact, as he ranks in the 27th percentile with an average exit velocity of 89.9 mph. He isn't generating a ton of ground balls either, ranking in the 42nd percentile with a 40.9 percent ground ball rate. Does a pitcher who doesn't strike many guys out, doesn't limit hard contact and doesn't generate many ground balls sound like an All-Star? Wrobleski has done an outstanding job throwing strikes and limiting walks, and he deserves credit for that, but I'm not sure how sustainable his .251 BABIP is (the league average is .290).
He just turned 26 years old on the day of the All-Star Game, so it feels wrong to bet against a player that young, but given the pitching talent that exists in the NL (and even on his own team) — and that he seems bound to regress sooner rather than later — I have my doubts that he'll make it back to the All-Star Game again.
RHP Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays
Nick Martinez making it to the All-Star Game for the first time at age 35 is a tremendous story. He didn't even sign with the Tampa Bay Rays until right before spring training began. And he was certainly a deserving selection, posting a 2.65 ERA in 18 starts for the Rays while allowing more than three runs just once. With that being said, as well as he's pitched, he feels bound to regress.
Martinez, much like Wrobleski, doesn't walk anybody, and has done a better job than Wrobleski at limiting hard contact, but he still has a 14.5 percent strikeout rate. He's striking out a shade over five batters per nine innings, and that puts a ton of pressure on his defense to play well behind him. (Ernie Clement sure helped him out on Tuesday.) His 3.91 FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA, and his 4.61 xERA is nearly two runs higher. Say what you want about expected stats, but if they're off by this much compared to his actual ERA, do you really think that sort of performance is sustainable?
How he's pitched and the fact that he'll be 36 years old at this time next year make it feel like this might've been his one and only shot to pitch in the All-Star Game.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Eduardo Rodriguez is another older player (33 years old) who made his first All-Star team this season. The fact that he did this after posting back-to-back 5.00 ERAs makes it even more impressive. As well as he's pitched this season for the Arizona Diamondbacks, though, he's another starter that feels bound to regress.
A big reason for that is, yes, the lack of strikeouts. Rodriguez has a 17.1 percent strikeout rate, which is well below average. Pitchers can succeed without striking a ton of batters out, but they need to do a good job limiting hard contact and/or keeping the ball on the ground to have sustainable success. Rodriguez has done neither this year; it's not even as if he's limiting walks. There isn't a single thing he's done particularly well, which makes his .248 BABIP feel like an anomaly.
Rodriguez has a 5.06 xERA and a 4.11 FIP. I hope he continues to defy the odds — the Diamondbacks certainly need him to continue pitching well — but I just don't see it.
1B Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox
Why not save the most controversial for last? Willson Contreras has had an awesome year for the Boston Red Sox, and he really opened some eyes at the Home Run Derby as well. He deserved to be an All-Star this year, and unlike the others on this list, I actually think he can have All-Star-caliber numbers in the future. The problem, though, is the position he plays in the league he's in.
Contreras is a first baseman, the same position as guys like Nick Kurtz, Ben Rice, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Munetaka Murakami, Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Jonathan Aranda in the AL (I can go on but won't). Contreras only made it to the All-Star Game this year because Guerrero Jr. backed out. Even if Vladdy doesn't get back to All-Star form (which I doubt), what are the odds of Contreras being better than all but one or two of those guys? The AL can only carry so many first basemen in an All-Star Game, and Contreras has made it clear that he does not want to leave the Red Sox.
I have no doubt that Contreras will put up good numbers again, but getting an All-Star nod over some of the league's best players at his position will be a challenge.
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