The MLB trade deadline is approaching and the muddled playoff picture in both leagues has made buying or selling decisions complicated. The AL Wild Card race feels like a slow speed car chase while the NL's is more competitive, which could lead to a seller's market.
Teams like the Kansas City Royals, New York Mets and Colorado Rockies could really clean up if they put the right pieces up for sale. There is still time before the deadline for teams to make the correct reads on their rosters, but there are a few teams that feel like they're trending towards making a huge mistake at the deadline.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles spent big in the offseason, giving Pete Alonso a five-year contract while pulling off trades for Taylor Ward and Shane Baz, among others, in hopes of revitalizing the roster around their young core. Those decisions haven't paid off yet, with Baltimore entering play on July 2 at 40-48 and 4.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot.
A -33 run differential indicates this team's record is probably accurate, but there have been smoke signals that Baltimore wants to buy to try and make a playoff push in the weak AL. There is some logic to that thinking, especially with Gunnar Henderson likely to walk when he reaches free agency after the 2028 season, but this is not the group to invest in.
There are too many young players having down years, including Jackson Holliday and Henderson himself, to think adding a bat and some pitching will make a big difference. The Orioles could benefit from listening on offers for Adley Rutschman, who could command a haul in a market desperate for catching, and use the returns from a potential deal to fortify multiple areas of the roster. Selling Ward would be a more short-term approach that could allow the O's to restock some assets ahead of 2027.
San Diego Padres
It sure feels like the bill is coming due for San Diego's aggressive spending over the years. The Padres' farm system is depleted after years of win-now trades and the long-term deals for Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts look like they are already underwater with years left on them.
When you add in a surprising power outage from Fernando Tatis Jr and serious regression from Jackson Merrill, in addition to pitching injuries, there is no reason for San Diego to be buying this year. The problem, however, is that A.J. Preller loves to trade and wants to make a positive impression with new ownership coming aboard.
Being aggressive when warranted is admirable and a trait of Preller's we need to see more of around the league. San Diego has so many holes that one big splash won't solve them, functioning more like a small cork trying to plug a dam that has burst in multiple locations.
Boston Red Sox
A four-game sweep of the slumping Yankees has re-invigorated the Red Sox, who climbed to nine games under .500 after beating the Washington Nationals on Monday. Boston promptly dropped the next two games to fall back to 11 under, and there is some pressure mounting after Craig Breslow made the unpopular decision to fire Alex Cora earlier this season.
The move to dump Cora hasn't lit a fire under Boston the way Don Mattingly turned the Phillies' season around. There has been a lot made of the investments Boston made into its roster, and some slightly better play combined with the mediocre AL Wild Card race can lead to temptation to invest more into the roster in hopes of becoming this year's Guardians.
That Cleveland team, however, took advantage of an incredibly rare heater and a massive swoon from the Tigers to steal the AL Central. The odds of such a heater coming for Boston are slim, but it feels like the sugar high of sweeping their heated rivals may inspire an unwarranted buying session when flipping someone like Willson Contreras could be better in the long run.
Detroit Tigers
This situation feels like the ultimate catch-22 for Detroit, which knows it is going to lose Tarik Skubal in the winter since ownership doesn't want to meet his contract demands. Skubal's quick return from an elbow injury has re-ignited his trade value while also helping Detroit dig a bit out of the hole they found themselves in after he got hurt.
The Tigers enter play on July 2 with a 39-48 record, which is a miserable record, but only six games out of a wild card spot. Considering how much Detroit invested into its roster in the offseason to try and win with Skubal, they could make the same mistake the Angels did in 2023 by trying to go for it with a generational superstar despite having a flawed roster that needed too much work to save.
Given how much Skubal means to Tigers' fans, it seems likely they will try to buy if they can get within 5 games of .500 by the end of the month. Doing so would mean mortgaging a lot of the future for a team that might be lucky to get out of the Wild Card series, which could set Detroit back years when the smart play would be to recoup maximum value for Skubal.
More MLB news and analysis
Add us as a preferred source on Google