Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The American League trade deadline landscape features clear divisions between buyers and sellers, with only a few teams holding strong positions.
- Teams like the Rangers, Mariners, and Astros are leaning into their chances despite injuries and inconsistent play.
- The Twins, Athletics, Angels, and Royals face tough decisions, with some likely to pivot toward rebuilding while others risk missteps.
The American League is clearly the weaker of the two leagues this season, making the upcoming trade deadline a complicated one for most of its would-be contenders. The only two teams who feel safely in the postseason hunt are the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, with, incredibly, the Chicago White Sox looking like the strong third bet with a two-game lead in the AL Central.
That trio is in the firm "buy" category as a result of their strong starts, especially given Chicago's clear bullpen needs and Tampa Bay's chance to go for the kill with a Tarik Skubal deal. How the rest of the Wild Card contenders should proceed, though, is clearly on a case-to-case basis.
How each AL Wild Card contender should approach the trade deadline
New York Yankees: Aggressively Buy
The Yankees may be slumping right now, but they remain in a strong position to win the AL pennant. A +91 run differential rates as the best in the American League and the third-best in all of baseball, meaning now is the time to try and strengthen the roster with Aaron Judge, Max Fried, Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham all due back at some point.
Catcher is an obvious need, so Brian Cashman should be on the phone with Minnesota to see what it would take to get Ryan Jeffers in pinstripes. Adding another infielder would be a strong choice as well given the struggles of Ryan McMahon and Jazz Chisholm, with more bullpen depth also an important priority. The kill shot would be going for Skubal, which may seem like overkill but could be valuable given Fried's lingering injury issues and Gerrit Cole's so-so return from Tommy John surgery.
Texas Rangers: Buy
The Rangers are technically in first place in the AL West but are only a half-game ahead of Seattle in the division. Being two games above .500 is not great, but a recent six-game winning streak shows there is something to salvage here with this talented roster.
With injuries to Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, offense in any form would be a boost for a team that currently has a negative run differential. A depth starter could also be of help to cover innings behind Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Mackenzie Gore in the rotation.
Cleveland Guardians: Hold
The dilemma the Guardians find themselves in is quite complicated, since they are without their star in Jose Ramirez after undergoing thumb surgery. Ramirez is trying to get back quickly, but if Cleveland can't keep pace with the White Sox in the Central, they could consider pivoting to sell mode to take advantage of a buyer's market.
We'll stick with hold for now, though, since there is still a month before the deadline, giving Ramirez time to return and the team to see if they can survive a tricky schedule with dates against the White Sox and red-hot Marlins looming before the All-Star break. If Cleveland does buy, they could use a slugger at DH or a true center fielder to push Steven Kwan back to left.
Seattle Mariners: Buy
It would be quite a disappointing turn of events for Seattle to go from within a game of the World Series to selling. The Cal Raleigh drop-off has played a big part in the Mariners' offensive struggles, but their elite pitching staff makes the group worth investing in to seize a weak AL.
A veteran middle-infield type could make sense to add depth to the offense in case Cole Young and Colt Emerson aren't ready for the rigors of a playoff race (or in case J.P. Crawford doesn't heat up). Bullpen help is always a good idea for a contender as well, especially with the Mariners dealing with multiple injuries there already.
Houston Astros: Buy
If we had this discussion a month ago the Astros would be clear sellers, but ripping off a 23-14 run since May 21 has changed the calculus for Houston. Healthy returns from Jose Altuve and several pitchers have made the Astros a more complete team, positioning them to make one more run at glory with their remaining championship core.
The outfield has been a weakness all season and could use some fortification. One potential trade fit could come with the Mets, who may shop Luis Robert Jr if he is able to return from back issues and would offer the Astros a much-needed boost in center field.
Minnesota Twins: Sell
The fact that the Twins are hanging around the Wild Card race is more a product of the race itself than any sort of quality play from Minnesota. Sitting five games below .500 with a -35 run differential indicates the field has come to the Twins more than the other way around, and as much as ownership is hesitant to start another fire sale, this team could be well-positioned to add more assets for a future rebuild.
Jeffers figures to be one of the hottest names at the deadline, while ace Joe Ryan's additional year of club control could make him the best pitcher not named Skubal to move. Byron Buxton's no-trade clause holds him back from potential deals for now, but if Minnesota can convince him to waive it, they would have a huge market for his services.
Toronto Blue Jays: Buy
Things have been rough for the Blue Jays due to a never-ending parade of injuries, but having Shane Bieber back adds some much needed depth to the rotation. The loss of Addison Barger, however, has created a big hole in the outfield that needs filling.
The track record of Toronto's veterans makes a go here worth it considering the weak state of the Wild Card race. Buying an outfielder, some bullpen arms and a fifth starter so they don't have to rely on Max Scherzer in the back of the rotation would be quite helpful.
The Athletics: Sell
The period when the A's were on top of the AL West was fun, but this group is essentially the same as last year: a loaded offense without enough pitching to survive in West Sacramento. A rash of injuries to position players and the decline of Lawrence Butler, however, has left the A's without much to actually sell.
Perhaps they can turn Jeff McNeil into a prospect as a guy who can cover multiple positions on a contender. Other than that, this may be more of a holding pattern for the Athletics as they tick another year off the calendar to move closer to their new home in Las Vegas.
The Rest
The Angels and Royals are clear sellers, leaving Baltimore, Detroit and Boston on the fringes of contention. The Red sox and Tigers are surging of late, leading to temptation to buy, but unless they can get closer to .500 by the deadline they should sell — especially Detroit, given the potential of losing Skubal for nothing in free agency.
Baltimore hasn't shown enough to merit buying at nine under .500, but the Orioles seem committed to buying to not waste another year of their young lineup's prime. That approach is probably a mistake, but if the Orioles do buy they clearly need more rotation help.
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