MLB teams out of contention often choose to trade veterans who are close to free agency in exchange for prospects. Oftentimes, this strategy makes sense. For example, if the Detroit Tigers fall out of contention, it makes all the sense in the world for them to trade Tarik Skubal, a star pitcher whom they won't be able to extend or re-sign in free agency.
These six players, however, are approaching free agency, yet should be extended rather than traded if their respective teams elect to sell at the deadline. In the end, the cost of trading these players to the organizations would be far more detrimental than the cost of paying them on a new contract.
RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins sold off half their team at last year's trade deadline, yet elected to hold onto Joe Ryan to this point. That decision has turned out to be a good one, as Ryan has only improved, but if the Twins fall out of contention, he'll probably find his way onto the trade block.
The Twins should absolutely field offers, but what are the odds that a team dramatically overpays for his services, knowing that the final year of control on his deal, next season, might not even happen due to a looming lockout? The Twins are better off extending their 30-year-old ace, as they're committed to absolutely nobody beyond the 2028 campaign and lack high-end pitching prospects.
LHP Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels are probably in the worst position in the sport, fielding a roster that's among the league's worst and a farm system that's as underwhelming as any. Reid Detmers is an exception to that. He's been nothing short of stellar in his return to the Angels' rotation this season, striking out 27.4 percent of the batters he's faced and posting a 3.22 FIP. His 3.0 fWAR is tied for ninth among all qualified pitchers.
Sure, the Angels can get a haul for this guy, especially considering his two additional years of club control, but given their history, what're the odds anyone they acquire for him turns out to be as good as he already is? Detmers only turned 27 years old at the beginning of July, and can lead this rotation for the foreseeable future. Considering how hard it's been for the Angels to acquire high-end talent, particularly on the pitching side, trading Detmers would be a tough pill to swallow.
RHP Clay Holmes, New York Mets
The New York Mets are expected to sell off many players at this year's trade deadline, and they should be doing just that. Clay Holmes should be an exception, though. In a year that's seen virtually every veteran on the team who isn't a reliever not named Juan Soto underperform, Clay Holmes was a steadying force in their rotation, posting a 2.39 ERA in nine starts and generating ground balls at a ridiculous 55.3 percent clip before suffering a knee injury that's kept him out for quite a while.
He's proven he's a reliable mid-rotation starter at worst, and despite being 33 years old, he doesn't have as many innings on his arm as you'd think thanks to his several years as a reliever. He's proven he can pitch well in New York, and he's already expressed a willingness to sign an extension with the Mets. Plus, what can the Mets realistically get for Holmes, a player likely to hit free agency after the year and who has been out since mid-May? Not much, in all likelihood - certainly nobody as valuable as Holmes is.
OF Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have two high-end outfield free agents to worry about after the year in Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. While Happ has had a brutal contract year, Suzuki has been his usual rock-solid self. His 128 OPS+ this season matches his career mark exactly. Sure, he's been annoyingly streaky, but that tends to be Suzuki's game.
The reason the Cubs should extend him ultimately comes down to the Cubs not being in a position to lose two starting outfielders this offseason. Pete Crow-Armstrong has center field locked down for the foreseeable future, but what about the corners? Do the Cubs really trust anyone internally to start? Are the Cubs really going to pay for a better option? Suzuki isn't perfect, but he shouldn't break the bank and their lineup is clearly much better with him than without him. It's unlikely the Cubs fall out of contention and consider trading Suzuki, but if they do, they ought to simply pay him instead.
RHP Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox
Speaking of a team unlikely to be selling, the Boston Red Sox's remarkable turnaround has them in buying territory, and that presumably means keeping Sonny Gray for now. That's not solidified, though. It should be, via an extension.
Yes, Gray is 36 years old, but he's pitching as well as ever, posting a 2.48 ERA this season for Boston. He has a 12-1 record, and the Red Sox are 14-4 when he's taken the ball. He's been the best and most consistent starter in what's been a very good rotation. Declining his $30 million mutual option, instead extending him for another one or two years, feels like the path Boston should take.
SS Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
The Houston Astros were just swept by the Baltimore Orioles and have lost three straight series, falling behind both in the AL West and the AL Wild Card races. Their struggles increase the possibility of Houston selling at the trade deadline. They wouldn't need to part with Jeremy Pena in that scenario, as he's under control through next season, but it'd make sense for them to consider the right deal.
It makes more sense for them to simply pay him, though. Did they miss their chance? Perhaps. Pena has established himself as one of the league's best all-around shortstops when healthy, and that is going to earn him a lot of money. However, the Astros should be able to afford it, especially with big contracts (Christian Walker, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr.) all going to be off the books by the end of next season. Pena is only 28 years old, and should be a major piece of this Astros core for years to come alongside Yordan Alvarez.
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