The Pittsburgh Pirates came out of the All-Star break with legitimate hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2015 after sweeping the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers in a three-game series to end the first half of the season.
The Pirates’ momentum continued to build after the break when they took two of three games from the Guardians in Cleveland to begin the second half in a series that ended on July 19. The Pirates raised their record to 52-48 and were in a three-way tie for the third National League wild card with the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals.
However, it’s been all downhill for the Pirates over the last three weeks. They have lost 14 of their last 20 games and fallen 5 ½ games off the pace for the last wild card. The Pirates still believe they are contenders, but their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. Baseball Reference gives the Pirates just a 3.9% chance of making the postseason. It turns out there are many culprits for the Pirates’ swoon.
Paul Skenes
The big right-hander was arguably considered the best pitcher in the major leagues at the start of the season. At the very least, it was a coin flip between Skenes and two-time reigning American League Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal.
The Pirates expected Skenes to pitch like an ace again this season after being the National League Rookie of the Year in 2024 and the Cy Young Award winner last year.
Yet Skenes is 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts. His struggles date back further, as his record is 3-8 with a 5.20 ERA in his last 15 starts. The Pirates are just 9-15 when Skenes pitches this season.
Bryan Reynolds
The right fielder should have been selected to the All-Star Game. Reynolds hit .283/.401/.477 with 14 home runs in 97 first-half games.
However, Reynolds has become a drag on the Pirates’ lineup in the second half with a .211/.290/.311 slash line in 23 games. He also has only one homer in 100 plate appearances.
Braxton Ashcraft
The right-hander was selected to the All-Star Game in his first full MLB season. Ashcraft was the Pirates’ best starting pitcher in the first half, with a 9-3 record and 3.49 ERA in 19 starts.
Ashcraft looks fatigued in the second half while going 2-2 with a 7.58 ERA in four starts. Ashcraft has also pitched 132 1/3 innings, the highest total of his seven-year professional career.
Brandon Eisert
The Pirates acquired the left-hander from the Chicago White Sox as the first piece of what became a reconstructed bullpen that included Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval, Lake Bachar and Kirby Yates being acquired at the trade deadline.
However, Eisert has been awful since the trade and now finds himself at Triple-A Indianapolis. He had a 9.53 ERA in five appearances before being demoted.
Mitch Keller
The veteran right-hander was 0-1 with a 6. 57 ERA in three starts since the break, then sustained a season-ending tear in the teres major muscle in his upper right arm.
The eight-year veteran’s job is essentially to provide stability to a young rotation. Instead, he has been a millstone this season.
Bill Murphy
Pirates general manager Ben Cherington acquiesced to the wishes of Skenes and some of the other pitchers and fired pitching coach Oscar Marin two days after last season ended. However, the Pirates were seventh in ERA in the major leagues.
Pitching was supposed to be the Pirates’ strength this season, and new pitching coach Bill Murphy was expected to take a talented young staff to greater heights. Instead, the Pirates are 21st in ERA this season, and nearly every member of the pitching staff has regressed.
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