The baseball season is long for a reason, and September baseball has a way of exposing exactly who a contender can and can't count on. For six of the game's biggest names, that reckoning has already started, and the numbers underneath their disappointing seasons suggest the turnaround everyone's been waiting for could finally be arriving at the worst possible time to still be waiting.
We need to look past batting average and OPS. Exit velocity and hard-hit rate tell you how well a player is actually squaring up the baseball, independent of where those balls happen to land. When a hitter's underlying contact quality holds steady but his results collapse, that's usually a BAbip problem, not a broken swing. Every player on this list fits that description to some degree, and five of their six teams are currently playing games that matter every single day between now and the end of the month.
Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners
Nobody on this list has fallen further, faster. Raleigh's OPS has dropped 369 points from last season, the largest single-year decline by any qualified hitter since Mark McGwire fell off a cliff between 2000 and 2001. His BAbip has crashed to .200 from .248 a year ago, but his exit velocity (89.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (38.3%) have barely moved. The league figured him out, and he is absolutely not hitting it to where they aren't.
The Seattle Mariners are scrapping for a wild card spot in one of the softest versions the American League has produced in years, which means Raleigh doesn't need a career year to matter in September. He just needs the ball to start finding grass. This is a game of adjustments, and those need to made.
Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Braves
Two separate hamstring strains have made it nearly impossible for Acuña to find any rhythm in 2026. His hard-hit rate has sunk to a career low that he has never come close to touching before. The Atlanta Braves still lead the NL East in spite of it. How much bigger does this offense get the moment he looks like himself again? His BAbip has fallen from .358 to .288, one of the widest gaps on this list, and the contact quality says positive regression is only a matter of time hen the Braves need it most.
Adding to the drama for Acuna is the contract part too. This is the final guaranteed season of the eight-year, $100 million extension Acuña signed back in 2019, one of the most team-friendly deals in the sport. Atlanta holds club options for 2027 and 2028 at $17 million apiece, and how Acuña closes out September isn't just about October. His September is the audition for whether the Braves pick those options up without a second thought.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays
Year one of Guerrero's $500 million extension has turned into a nightmare season by his standards: an elbow contusion, recurring back tightness, hamstring discomfort, and a 365-day home run drought at Rogers Centre that would have been unthinkable a year ago. Toronto has watched its AL East throne get taken by Tampa Bay, a stunning fall from a team that was playing in October just last fall.
His OPS+ has dropped 44 points from 2025, but his hard-hit rate (42.9%) hasn't collapsed the way the rest of his stat line has. This reads like a body that hasn't cooperated more than a swing that's actually broken, which should worry the Blue Jays a lot less than the alternative.
Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers
The Dodgers handed Tucker $240 million in January to help chase a third straight title, and year one has been the quietest version of him in half a decade. His OPS+ is down 47 points and his BAbip has dropped 19 points, though his exit velocity sits a tick below his career norm, which makes his case slightly less of a pure luck story than the others here. Los Angeles doesn't need saving in the standings, but a franchise that just spent a record-setting sum on him needs one more gear before October. The postseason bye the Dodgers were expecting with this lineup is on the verge of going away.
Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
Turner's OPS has collapsed from .812 a year ago to .678, and August might have been his worst month yet, with a stretch of games producing a sub-.500 OPS right as the calendar turned. Philadelphia is holding onto a wild card spot, but the lineup has been quietly papering over his absence for months. His BAbip has dropped from .350 to .284, which points to some bad luck buried in there, though the plate discipline concerns that have followed him all year are real too.
José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
The quietest name on this list, and maybe the one with the highest stakes attached. Cleveland is clinging to the final American League wild card spot by half a game over Baltimore as I write this. With the hamate surgery and rehab shortening his season, Ramírez's OPS+ has fallen 31 points from an excellent 2025, and his BAbip is down 21 points despite a hard-hit rate (41.8%) that looks almost identical to a year ago. The contact quality is there, but the rhythm may still need to be found. If the Guardians hang on, this is the bat they'll need running hot.
Injuries are never at the right time but this one stings more. Ramírez signed a fresh seven-year, $175 million extension with Cleveland this past January, tearing up the seven-year, $141 million deal he'd inked back in 2022 before it even reached its final stretch. The ink is barely dry on a $25 million annual salary, and he's in the middle of one of the quietest years of his career.
The bottom line
Outside of Tucker, every hitter on this list is still squaring up the baseball at rates close to their career norms. The results simply haven't arrived yet. September is a small enough sample that two hot weeks can flip the entire narrative on any one of these players, and for five of the six, their teams are playing games right now where that flip can't come soon enough.
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