These MLB playoffs prove that Rob Manfred's lockout push is built on a lie

It's an inevitability at this point that MLB will impose a lockout this offseason, leading fans to wonder whether there will even be a 2027 season at all. While there are a ton of things for MLB and the MLBPA to discuss, the crux of the issue is centered around a possible salary cap. Owners want one, citing the need to improve parity around the league. The MLBPA wants no part of a salary cap, saying that it simply artificially deflates player earning without impacting parity.

Objectively, both sides have a point. But if these MLB playoffs have proven anything, it's that the players seem to be more in the right: Spending money does not guarantee anything.

MLB payrolls of remaining playoff teams prove basis of upcoming lockout is built on a lie

Here's a look at the teams that remain alive in the postseason as of Thursday, and where their 2026 luxury tax payroll ranks among all of MLB.

Obviously, the Los Angeles Dodgers are at the center of this debate, as they have the sport's highest luxury tax payroll and are still alive in their quest to pull off a World Series three-peat. What about everyone else, though?

Three of the bottom five spenders in the sport this season are still alive. Heck, even the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that's always in the bottom half of the league in payroll were baseball's best team in the regular season and are going to attempt to overtake L.A. in the NLCS.

The facts are the facts. While, sure, the Dodgers might win another title, teams with payrolls four times smaller than theirs have as good a shot. The AL pennant winner will be a team with a bottom-five payroll. Just let that sink in.

Spending money doesn't guarantee any semblance of success in MLB

Many don't want to hear this because of how much money the Dodgers spend and how much success they have, but spending money doesn't guarantee anything. A look at the top payrolls in the league would prove that.

Both the New York Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays, two teams that spent over $300 million on payroll, missed the playoffs entirely in embarrassing fashion. The Mets finished in last place in the NL East, while the Jays were unable to overcome a historically weak American League.

The two other non-Dodgers teams did make the playoffs, but the Yankees were swept in the ALDS by the Rays and their 27th-ranked payroll while the Phillies couldn't get out of the Wild Card series. In other words, four of the top five payrolls in the sport combined to win a grand total of zero games in October. Is that good?

Even if you wanted to expand to the top 10 payrolls and include the Red Sox, Cubs, Padres, Braves and Astros, three of those teams lost in the Wild Card series and the other two were eliminated on Wednesday in the Division Series. Can you say spending money helps you make the playoffs? Sure, but lesser spenders have had no issues getting to October — and clearly, if nine of the top 10 highest payrolls are eliminated before the Championship Series, spending money doesn't guarantee anything.

Plus, when you think about how they've gotten where they are, the Dodgers aren't only great because they spend money. They find ways to improve on the margins as well as just about any team in the league.

Dodgers continue to find ways to win on the margins that other teams can't replicate

Look at the Dodgers' Game 4 win against the Braves. Andy Pages, the player who put L.A. in front with a two-run single, was signed as a teenager in international free agency for $300,000. Max Muncy, who gave the Dodgers an insurance run with a home run in the ninth, was picked up off waivers when the Athletics, of all teams, decided they'd had enough.

Kiké Hernandez, who comes through with big hits every postseason, signed a cheap one-year deal to return to the Dodgers and has never made much money. Alex Vesia was acquired in a minor trade with the Marlins in 2021. Edgardo Henriquez was signed in international free agency for $80,000. Evan Phillips was a waiver claim from the Rays. Miguel Rojas, the hero of the 2025 World Series, was signed for cheap in free agency. The list goes on.

Of course, not every team could have signed Shohei Ohtani. Not every team could have made many of the moves the Dodgers have made of late. But Ohtani went 2-for-13 in the NLDS. Will Smith went 1-for-16. Mookie Betts was 3-for-14. Freddie Freeman had a couple of huge home runs, but even he went 4-for-15. Having the rotation they do helps a ton, but other teams could've traded for Tarik Skubal. Even Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow aren't even making $200 million on their deals — 95 percent of the league could have signed them.

The bottom line here is that spending doesn't guarantee anything. You're just as likely to miss the playoffs as you are to make them by spending, and once you're in October, who knows what'll happen? The Rays just eliminated a top-three spender in the league, and did so in a sweep. The Dodgers winning World Series largely due to contributions from players any of the other teams could've had doesn't prove that baseball needs a cap. If anything, it proves how elite an executive Andrew Friedman is, and how much better other front offices need to be at evaluating talent.

MLB owners want a salary cap in place so they can suppress player contracts, thereby increasing their revenue. That's always been the case, and the fact that three of the final four teams will have low payrolls only proves that spending money doesn't dictate parity.

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