Don’t look now, but the surging San Diego Padres are inching even closer to yet another postseason berth. The Friars' 6-2 victory over the Twins on Saturday night moved San Diego to 70-60, one game up on the Diamondbacks for the NL's third and final Wild Card spot.
Credit to the Padres for making it this far despite underwhelming seasons from Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Both enter Saturday with the worst single-season OPS of their careers, and they've combined for 2.0 bWAR. All will be forgiven if their bats wake up in the postseason, though it’s understandably difficult to feel overly optimistic.
Machado has done enough to be all but a lock for the Hall of Fame, even without a World Series title on his résumé. Bogaerts has the championships and some of the counting stats, but his spot in Cooperstown doesn’t feel as secure — and we’re not sure that a second World Series ring would do much to help.
Evaluating San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts’ Hall of Fame case
We fully understand that not everyone is a fan of analytics and sabermetrics, especially as they relate to the Hall of Fame. In theory, the museum is supposed to celebrate the elite, not the above-average players who would have been one-and-done candidates in the past. But nearly 2,000 hits and over 200 home runs just isn’t enough anymore.
As of Aug. 22, 2026, Bogaerts is at 43.2 bWAR and 45.6 fWAR, so he’s got the advanced metrics slightly working in his favor. It’s also worth noting that Negro Leaguers make up a significant amount of the full-time position players who finished under 40 bWAR and earned a Hall of Fame plaque.
Recent years have proven that the counting stats don’t necessarily mean what they once did, at least for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Chris Sale is a lock for Cooperstown despite likely not reaching 200 wins, and Jacob deGrom’s peak — and the greater context of his Mets career — should override his incredibly low win total.
As for hitters, Joe Mauer’s 2024 election only reiterated how much these voters weigh a player’s best years. Although concussions sapped the 2009 AL MVP’s power and eventually forced him to move from behind the plate to first base, his prime seasons easily won out. How could you leave out a player who recorded nearly 41 bWAR from 2006 through 2013?
If you’re familiar with Immaculate Grid, then you already know that 40 bWAR for most positions is typically considered an above-average career. Closers are the obvious exception, and even Trevor Hoffman only recorded 28.0 bWAR.
But as with anything, advanced metrics cannot — and should not — tell the entire story. As of publication, there are 361 players who have tallied at least 40 bWAR, and no one is building a Hall of Fame case for Steve Finley (44.2) or Mark Grace (46.4).
We just threw a lot of numbers your way, but that’s the Hall of Fame in a nutshell. Not every candidate is Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki where the only question is which voter will make it about themselves and leave the living legends off their ballot.
Will San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts reach the Hall of Fame?
In hindsight, that 2018 Red Sox roster was loaded with potential future Hall of Famers. Mookie Betts is a lock, and it’d be shocking if he doesn’t clear 90% on his first try. The same goes for Sale, largely thanks to his renaissance in Atlanta. Dustin Pedroia is trending upward, and voters seem willing to focus on his prime rather than the knee injuries that limited him to nine games in his final two seasons.
That only leaves Bogaerts, and it’s difficult to envision him being elected to the Hall of Fame. He’d need an incredible second wind of above-average play, which feels unlikely based on his last three seasons.
Here’s the thing: Bogaerts could easily clear 2,500 hits by sticking around and finishing his contract, but does it really matter if he bats .255 with a below-average OPS? At that point, who cares? His numbers have him on track for the Hall of Very Good, but not Cooperstown.
Granted, things should be that simple, but that’s rarely the case with Hall of Fame voters. Look no further than those willing to vote for Alex Rodriguez despite his suspension for PED use.
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