The Boston Celtics made the most controversial move of the offseason by trading Jaylen Brown to the rival Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks. Jayson Tatum and Brown were the most successful duo in the league over the past decade. And even if Brown isn't your cup of tea, there's no denying that this package is underwhelming.
There's a lot of risk for the Celtics with this trade. Among other things, are doubling down on Joe Mazzulla's system, banking on internal growth, and hoping that two years from now they'll have more flexibility. Perhaps more than anything else, though, Boston is banking on Tatum fully returning to his elite standards.
Without Brown, the Celtics no longer have a clear No. 2 option, and that will be the case unless Payton Pritchard or someone else makes a massive leap. The Celtics proved they are capable of an impressive amount of regular-season success despite having some clear roster flaws last season.
However, unless Tatum is playing at a First-Team All-NBA level, the Celtics won't be able to win a title, which is the standard in Boston.
The Celtics are banking on Jayson Tatum regaining his pre-injury form
Remarkably, Tatum returned to the court less than 10 months after suffering a torn Achilles. All things considered, he looked pretty good. Tatum averaged 21.8 points, 10 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 41.1/32.9/82.3 shooting splits in 16 regular-season games and improved his production in the playoffs.
While Tatum looked great for someone coming off an Achilles injury, he didn't look like a top-five-level player. To be clear, this should be expected coming off such a serious injury.
The reality is, though, by trading Brown, Tatum will have to carry a heavier load than he ever has before. That's inherently a big risk.
During the 2024 title run, Tatum had Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford. Now he has White, George, Pritchard, Neemias Queta, and Mitchell Robinson. There's no debating that, from both a talent and secondary creation standpoint, this is a massive drop-off.
And during that title run, Tatum heavily leaned on Brown as opposing defenses sent the kitchen sink at him. Even if Tatum returns to his 2024 form, it's unclear if he can handle this level of defensive attention with a weaker supporting cast.
Tatum is a great all-around player, and even post-Achilles injury, that impact shouldn't be questioned. But can he deal with difficult coverage, handle a higher usage burden, and create the vast majority of offense for Boston?
Unsurprisingly, Tatum's rim volume (3.8 rim attempts per game) was a career low, and his 62.3 rim field goal percentage was the lowest since his third season. If Tatum can't generate consistent rim pressure, being a true offensive engine (without much creation alongside him) is inherently harder, and the Celtics' drive-and-kick game won't be at the same level.
Kevin Durant's rim pressure steadily declined after his Achilles injury, meaning there's a chance Tatum will never be able to generate the same level of rim pressure. You also have to wonder if Tatum will be durable enough to handle such a heavy load.
I'm not completely ruling out Tatum regaining some of his burst and becoming a top-five-level player again. Regardless, there are some clear question marks.
Why a higher usage Tatum might work
Now, here's the positive spin: the Celtics are statistically an unstoppable team when Tatum's usage scales up. In the last four seasons, Boston has a 76-9 record (which translates to an 89.4 winning percentage) when Tatum has a usage rate of 33 or higher. Still, Tatum's career usage rate is 28.6, and his single-season high is 32.7.
Brown had a 35.1 usage rate last season, which ranked third in the league. It's fair to expect Tatum's usage to be around this mark.
No disrespect to Brown (and I'm not defending the trade), but Tatum's superior playmaking and 3-point shooting make him a more natural offensive engine.
As such, there's a clear case to be made that scaling up his usage could allow the Celtics to compete for a title, and negate the need for a traditional second option. Some players are that good to where a second option isn't needed. Maybe Tatum is that effective of an offensive engine that he, Mazzulla's system, and some solid third options can cover up this void.
At the end of the day, though, none of this matters in the slightest if Tatum doesn't truly return to his elite pre-injury form.
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