Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A new study examines the top 20 Summer League scorers since 2004 and finds most never became elite NBA scorers.
- The analysis highlights how lower competition levels can inflate certain skills that don't translate to the professional ranks.
- The piece argues Summer League serves better for team meetings and giving undrafted players a chance than for evaluating top draft picks.
Every night before she tucked me in, my mother always said, “Oliver, only react to performances from NBA Summer League that suit your interests and confirm your preconceived notions. Never use Summer League to develop new opinions about players.”
Those are words to live by, and I have essentially cut NBA Summer League out of my sports-watching calendar because of the gnawing feeling that everything I’m seeing is completely meaningless. But in the interest of academic integrity, I have decided to prove that it is all meaningless in order to justify my behavior. Nothing like ex post facto data science!
Once I finish failing AP statistics for this Y axis and label sizes, check out how the Top 20 scorers in NBA Summer League history fared in NBA scoring. Yes that is 9 of the top 20 averaging less than 10 PPG in the NBA pic.twitter.com/09zZaR187E
— Oliver Fox (@oliversfox) July 24, 2026
That graph (or study in general) certainly does not meet academic standards. There are infinite possible reasons why someone may be scoring/not scoring in Summer League (second-year player, injury risk, team decisions etc.) but it does represent how, of the top 20 scorers in Summer League since 2004 (minimum two games played), many/most of them do not become elite scorers in the NBA. Here’s a table of some of my favorites:
NBA Summer League scorers who never panned out
Name | Points Per Game (Summer League) | Points Per Game (NBA Career) |
|---|---|---|
Drew Timme | 25.3 | 5.6 |
Josh Selby | 24.2 | 2.2 |
Jerryd Bayless | 23.9 | 8.4 |
Scotty Hopson | 23.5 | 1.5 |
This should not be surprising to anyone. Summer League is a much lower level of competition, and thus certain skillsets that do not fly against top-tier NBA defense might fly against second-round picks trying to make an NBA roster. Primo example: Drew Timme, the headband-wearing post moves bag work aficionado whose floaty jump hooks and head fakes simply do not survive spring-loaded 7-foot fly swatters like Victor Wembanyama.
I also have data on shooting percentages, but rather than bore you with mostly the same takeaways, you can just see the raw data for yourself:
Raw data (per RealGM and Basketball Reference) of the top 20 Summer League scorers since 2004 and how they faired scoring in the NBA pic.twitter.com/1YKnAC6gqJ
— Oliver Fox (@oliversfox) July 24, 2026
Why was any of this necessary? Well, I think there is an epidemic of misunderstanding about what Summer League is for in NBA media and fandom, and this is step one of correcting it. Summer League is a time for high-level NBA meetings, for fans and reporters to fire off a round of questions and for the league to get together after more free agents and trade guys have moved around. It is also for young, aspiring rookies or G Leaguers to go all-out and impress someone into taking a chance on them in the NBA.
It is not for legitimate player evaluation, especially not for top picks like AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson. We knew these guys were good against worse competition; we saw it in college! How successful an elite draft pick will be in the league comes down to how their talent translates against the highest level of defense and intensity. And no Summer League survives first contact with the enemy. Trust me. Trust Drew Timme and Scotty Hopson.
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