The Los Angeles Clippers losing five first-round picks as part of the Kawhi Leonard cap circumvention scandal puts their future in a dark spot, to say the least. With Kawhi, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all out of town, the Clippers were hoping to embrace a rebuild. Doing so without their own draft picks until 2034 and no incoming unprotected first-round pick until 2031 feels like an impossible task, though.
Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram give the Clippers enough talent that they won't be at the bottom of the West for the foreseeable future. At the same time, both players have clear flaws, and neither is anything more than a fringe All-Star talent. In a star-driven league, a Garland-Ingram duo isn't nearly enough to compete, and neither player is good enough to help lure a high-end star to Intuit Dome.
Unfortunately, the Clippers don't have any reasonable pathways to improve, and this duo might not even be enough for LA to be a Play-In team.
What if rookie Keaton Wagler blossoms into a star, though? This would change the Clippers' fortunes to some extent, and frankly, I don't think it's all that far-fetched.
Keaton Wagler has superstar upside
Yes, saying that a rookie is a franchise's last hope to find a true star sets an awfully high bar, but that's the reality of the Clippers' situation. Thankfully, the No. 5 pick has plenty of star traits. Wagler has elite positional size at 6-foot-6, which makes building a team around him inherently easier and allows him to seamlessly fit into an NBA that's trending toward positional size.
Offensively, Wagler is the complete package. OK, I'll admit, he's not an explosive athlete, but from a skill standpoint, you couldn't ask for anything more. Wagler is a silky smooth scorer who can lull defenses to sleep in isolation. He gets to his spots well, can abuse mismatches in the pick-and-roll, has a deep scoring bag and is unshakable as a ball-handler. Likewise, Wagler showed proficiency as a pull-up 3-point shooter.
Averaging 17.9 points in the Big Ten is no easy task for a freshman, and he also led Illinois to a Final Four appearance. Without a doubt, Wagler's self-creation abilities give him star-level upside.
Wagler's off-ball scoring and playmaking are two other key skills. According to No Ceilings, Wagler ranked in the 91st percentile for guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. Being an elite off-ball shooter with size, self-creation and playmaking chops makes you a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Look at Tyrese Haliburton as a blueprint for this archetype.
His poise as a creator translates to his feel as a passer. Wagler is constantly searching for his teammates. Whether it's on pick-and-rolls or driving to the basket, Wagler constantly makes the right reads as a playmaker and creates easy shots for his teammates.
Wagler's ability to elevate his teammates in tandem with his scoring prowess completes his offensive upside. If Wagler can put it all together, a Haliburton-like outcome feels like it could be in the cards.
Would maximizing a roster around him without draft capital be challenging? Of course, but finding a true No. 1 option is the hardest part of building a winning roster, and Wagler could fill this void for the Clippers. If everything goes well, Wagler could help guide L.A. back to the playoffs sooner than people are expecting.
The Clippers could be lost if Wagler doesn't become a star
There's a middle-ground outcome for Wagler: He becomes a fringe All-Star-level player or a high-end starter. This could help save the Clippers from being at the bottom of the barrel in the West, but their path to being anything beyond a frisky Play-In team would be narrow for a long time.
The more unfortunate possibility is that Wagler might not be able to put everything together. What if his lack of athleticism caps his upside? Or what if he's not an elite scorer at the NBA level?
Given his feel for the game, size and shooting, I still think he'd be a good player. Nevertheless, simply having a complementary guard wouldn't be enough to change the Clippers' fortunes. If Wagler is merely a good complementary player, Los Angeles will likely be outside of the playoff picture with no pathways to improve for the foreseeable future. A decade-plus playoff drought, Sacramento Kingsstyle, could be in the cards.
I know that sounds bleak. But barring something unexpected happening, like Jordan Miller blossoming into a star, Garland becoming a viable No. 1 option or a big free agent coming to a team with empty coffers, Wagler is the Clips' last chance to find a star who can make them a competitive team in the next five to seven years.
That's a lot of weight on Wagler's shoulders, hopefully he can handle it.
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